Sugar sales in March and April declined by 10 lakh tonne because of the imposition of nationwide lockdown to control the coronavirus disease, the Indian Sugar Mills Association (ISMA) said.
However, fall in overseas sales of sugar during the lockdown is expected to "partially or largely" get compensated by the extra sales to Indonesia, which is likely to meet its sugar demand from India in view of shortages in Thailand, ISMA said.
Indian Sugar Mills Association (ISMA) had in November last year pegged sugar production at 26 million tonnes for the 2019-20 marketing year (October to September) considering fall in sugarcane crop in key growing states, compared with 33.16 million tonnes during the 2018-19 marketing year.
"We are due to meet on Feb. 25 when we will revisit the estimate and if there is significant change it will come out in the last week of February," Vivek Pittie, President of ISMA told an industry conference in Dubai.
Sugar marketing year runs from October to September. Mills had manufactured 7.05 million tonne of sugar in the same period of the 2018-19 marketing year.
The country is the world's biggest sugar producer and lower output could support global prices.
"As on November 15, 2019, 100 sugar mills were crushing sugarcane, as compared to 310 sugar mills last year on November 15, 2018. During the current 2019-20 sugar season, sugar production as on November 15, was 4.85 lakh tonnes as compared to 13.38 lakh tonnes produced as on November 15, 2018, in 2018-19 sugar season," the Indian Sugar Mills Association (ISMA) said in a statement.
India’s final sugar output is much higher than expected. A problem of plenty is likely to affect sugar mills unless the government steps in
Indian Sugar Mills Association (ISMA) Director General Abinash Verma said mills interest burden will reduce by Rs 800-900 crore with government providing the interest subvention.
Farmers in key cane-growing states are protesting the delay in cane payments from the mills, and that may force the government to provide more incentives to the ailing industry ahead of general elections due by May.
The production, is however, estimated to decline to 307 lakh tonnes in 2018-19 marketing year (October-September) from record 325 lakh tonnes in the previous year, Indian Sugar Mills Association (ISMA) said in a statement.
On exports, the Indian Sugar Mills Association (ISMA) said it could reach 3-3.5 MT in the current marketing year (October-September) against the mandatory quota of 5 million tonne unless the government takes strict action.
The government needs to shrink its role in the sugar sector.
"As on December 31, 2018, 501 sugar mills were in operation in the country and have produced 110.52 lakh tonnes of sugar, as compared to 103.56 lakh tonnes produced by 505 sugar mills as on 31st December 2017," Indian Sugar Mills Association (ISMA) said in a statement.
The government-to-government level trade deal to export sugar to China will be a game changer for the beleaguered sector
The sugar output is now seen at 32 million tonnes for the season that began on October 1, down from its previous forecast of 35-35.5 million tonnes, the Indian Sugar Mills Association said in a statement.
As per Crisil's analysis, a 25 percent safeguard duty entails a rise in capital costs by 15-20 percent, which would have a 30-40 paise per unit impact on bid tariffs.
"Till April 30, 2018, sugar mills have produced 31.03 MT sugar in the current season. With 130 sugar mills still operating, majorly in Uttar Pradesh, it is expected that sugar production during the current season might end up between 31.5-32 MT," Indian Sugar Mills Association (ISMA) said in a statement.
Consequently, total cane arrears are estimated to have reached Rs 16,200 crore as on March 31 of the current marketing year (October-September). Of this, Uttar Pradesh has maximum arrears at Rs 7,200 crore, it added.
To improve liquidity of millers, the government should remove export duty of 20 per cent and allow shipment of 2 million tonnes immediately, it said in a statement.
Mills had produced 81.91 lakh tonnes of the sweetener in the same period of 2016-17 season (October-September). The Indian Sugar Mills Association (ISMA) has pegged total sugar output at 251 lakh tonnes in the ongoing 2017-18 season, as against 202 lakh tonnes last year. Consumption is estimated to be 250 lakh tonnes this year.
While Bangladesh levys import duty of USD 150 per tonne on sugar, Sri Lanka imposes USD 100. The two neighbours import about 25-30 lakh tonnes of sweetener annually, ISMA said.
Indian Sugar Mills Association (ISMA) said around 66 crore litre of ethanol was lifted by OMCs (oil marketing companies) for the ethanol blending programme in 2016-17 season (December–November). The previous record was 111 crore litre in 2015-16.
The Indian Sugar Mills Association (ISMA) has pegged 251 lakh tonnes (lt) sugar output this year as against 202 lt in the last year.
ISMA has pegged the output at 25.1 million tonne in 2017-18 season as against 20.2 million tonne in the last sugar season (October-September).