In an interview to CNBC-TV18, SP Tulsian of sptulsian.com shared his readings and outlook on specific stocks and sectors.
Amid demand from the industry to allow retail sugar prices to rise up to Rs 45/kg, Union Minister Nitin Gadkari today said the rates should be reasonable for consumers as the government has a difficult job to balance interest of all stakeholders.
India's sugar production rose by 17 per cent at 27.41 lakh tonnes during the first two months of the current marketing year that started in October on the back of higher output in Uttar Pradesh, according to industry data.
"If the production number we are suggesting at the moment comes out correct, or comes close, I don't think we will need to import," he told Reuters on the sidelines of a sugar seminar hosted by the International Sugar Organization.
Sugar production stood at 1.87 lakh tonnes in the same month of the 2015-16 season (October-September).
Despite fall in production due to drought in last two consecutive years, Indian Sugar Mills Association (ISMA) said there is no need to import sweetener as the country has enough stock to meet domestic demand.
In an interview to CNBC-TV18's Reema Tendulkar & Prashant Nair, Tarun Sawhney, VC & MD of Triveni Engineering & Industries said that hike in fair and remunerative price (FRP) by Rs 30-40 per quintal could be dangerous.
The months of September and October are likely to see sugar sales of roughly 22-23 lakh tonne said Abinash Verma, Director General of Indian Sugar Mills Association (ISMA).
Vivek Saraogi, Managing Director Of Balrampur Chini Mills, says that 80 percent of India's sugar mills at this time of the year won't have much surplus. Only 15-20 percent would have stock above 37% of output.
Finance Minister Arun Jaitley today held an inter-ministerial consultation on imposing ban on sugar futures trading in an effort to curb speculation and check price rise of the sweetener during festival season.
At the National Commodity and Derivatives Exchange, sugar for delivery in July declined by Rs 9 or 0.25 per cent to Rs 3,622 per quintal with an open interest of 35,790 lots.
The government yesterday imposed a 20 percent export duty on sugar to curb outbound shipments, which had become viable after a sharp rise in global prices over a past few months.
In a bid to rein in sugar prices, the government yesterday announced a 20 percent import duty on the sweetener. The duty, which works to around Rs 7,000 per tonne, will likely bring exports to a halt, said ISMA Director General Abinash Verma.
According to trade sources, sugar exports have become viable now as global prices have increased by about 50 percent in the last three months due to disruption in supply from Brazil.
As per its estimates, the major reduction in sugar would be in Uttar Pradesh and Karnataka.
The sugar sector has seen its worst, and the prices will begin reflecting in quarterly earnings soon, says ISMA President Tarun Sawhney.
In an interview with CNBC-TV18, market expert SP Tulsian gave his stock picks and shared his outlook for the market going forward.
The country exported 1.15 MT during the October-March period and another 3,00,000 tonnes is expected to be shipped in next couple of months, sugar industry body ISMA said.
Country's sugar production is estimated to decline by over 9 percent to 256 lakh tonnes in the current marketing year ending September on account of lower sugarcane output.
Abinash Verma of ISMA says the production this year is estimated to drop to around 260 lakh tonne, compared to 283 lakh tonne last year, due to weak monsoon.
Sugar production in the world's second biggest producing country has reached 17.33 million tonnes (MT) till February 15 of the 2015-16 marketing year (October-September), up by 3.64 percent from 16.72 MT in the year-ago period, it said in a statement.
ISMA has revised the sugar output estimate downward by 1 MT to 26 MT for this year, which is in line with government's projections but lower than 28.3 MT that was achieved in the 2014-15 marketing year.
Sugar production of India, the world's second-largest producer after Brazil, stood at 28.3 million tonnes in 2014-15 marketing year (October-September).
In an interview to CNBC-TV18, ISMA head Abinash Verma says the prices of sugar have now moved up to around Rs 3000 per quintal. He expects the Uttar Pradesh to keep the sttae-advised price (SAP) for sugar at Rs 280 per quintal
Stating that the export target is challenging, Indian Sugar Mills Association (ISMA) President A Vellayan said the market for white sugar is largely restricted to Sri Lanka, West Asia and African countries.