The rupee may not revisit record lows but it may not gain in a market shrouded in uncertainty.
India’s GDP growth is expected to be healthy in FY27 but the rupee may not reflect it
REER shows the rupee is undervalued as of October
PwC’s Ranen Banerjee says India’s evolving import mix limits pass-through even as the currency briefly breaches 90 per dollar
Trump’s tariffs have made Asian central banks’ jobs complicated amid a brewing currency war.
Amid tariffs, the RBI will need to choose a battle it can win: either exchange rate or domestic inflation
The RBI’s interventions have been criticized and have found support too
Central bank interventions tend to distort market price but that is a cost worth taking sometimes
The RBI’s interventions are keeping the rupee in a tight band, but not avoiding overvaluation
Trump’s trade policies would make Asian economies get into a currency war soon and the Indian rupee won’t be able to avoid it.
The idea involves avoiding pegging the exchange rate with the dollar or any other third currency. However, the official says that in order to establish a direct FX rate, the rupee and ruble would need to trade in the same currency exchange platform for a much larger quantity and for a longer duration while the two sides workout a mutual referencing price.
The domestic currency's depreciation has been less than what has been seen for competing currencies like the Vietnamese dong and Indonesian rupiah, tempering the country's competitiveness in overseas markets.
On the foreign exchange reserve front, the former RBI governor said holding reserves is a safety net, but also involves cost.
Chaudhary's comments come after the rupee hit a new all-time low of 83.41 per dollar on December 13. Since then, the Indian currency has gained some ground and was even trading in the sub-83 per dollar territory early on December 18
The RBI has been a player on both sides of the market and intervening as a seller and buyer depending on the situation. That said, the bias has been to soak up inflows into domestic markets, preventing an appreciation of the rupee.
When competitors report a sharp decline in specific garment exports, shipments of those from Bangladesh grew in July-August. From $48 billion in 2021, forex reserves are a lowly $21 billion. A $12 billion gap between shipment values and export receipts suggests corruption or data fudging. Exchange rate mishandling has dented the trust of migrant workers and their foreign remittances