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Many would say it was only a matter of time after India’s outlook was upgraded to positive two years ago that a ratings upgrade was in the tow. S&P Global Ratings, last week, delivered the much talked about upgrade after a gap of 17 years, underscoring the strength of the Indian economy. But is it too late and will the next one take as much time.
Welcome to Beyond Averages, our weekly data podcast where we try to decode the story behind the big numbers and this week we will be talking about S&P’s upgrade and the road ahead.
More than the upgrade, it’s the outlook and forecast for India that seem reassuring. S&P expects Indian economy to weather the global uncertainty storm and grow at 6.8 percent starting FY27. The economy is expected to log a 6.5 percent growth this fiscal as per S&P. Moreover, the ratings agency expect debt to come down to below 80 percent and fiscal deficit to fall to 6.6 percent. But does that take us closer to the next upgrade. Not so much, S&P notes that for the next upgrade deficit needs to fall to 6 percent on a structural basis.
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India’s fertility rate, the number of children a woman is able to bear in her reproductive years, has gone down to 1.9, taking it below 2.1
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India’s GDP grew by 6.5 percent in FY25, and key economic indicators appear robust, according to data from the National Statistics Office. Yet, consumer sentiment surveys from the RBI suggest income concerns and weak urban demand—highlighting a growing disconnect
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Recently, NITI Aayog CEO BVR Subrahmanyam had claimed that India has overtaken Japan as the fourth largest economy in the world in terms of nominal GDP
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Data released by the finance ministry showed that in Q4FY25, the central government’s capital spending jumped 33.1% on year as compared to a mere 1% growth recorded in the first nine months (April-December) of FY25.
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It’s time to ask whether behavioural science can tackle big problems
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India will have the largest working age population by 2030, surpassing China
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A lot will depend on how India navigates global trade and tariff talks
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The Indian economy grew at 6.8 percent in 1999 against IMF’s prediction of 5.7 percent
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Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co (TSMC) announced an investment of at least $100 billion in the United States to expand its semiconductor production. The investment will fund five new advanced fabrication facilities, with a significant portion directed to Arizona, where TSMC has already invested heavily. This expansion, which follows a prior $65 billion commitment during President Biden's administration, includes three new fabrication plants, two advanced packaging facilities, and a research and development center, creating approximately 40,000 construction jobs over the next four years. TSMC's CEO, C.C. Wei, stated the investment would support advancements in AI and smartphones. Taiwanese officials have said they will review the investment to ensure it aligns with Taiwan’s semiconductor interests, considering the sector's competitiveness. There are concerns that shifting too much production abroad could weaken Taiwan’s "Silicon Shield," its dominant role in chipmaking, which is seen as a key geopolitical asset amid tensions with China.
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Twelve years ago, the Economic Survey foresaw India's economic trajectory with striking accuracy. Now, the World Bank's latest report echoes similar concerns, mapping out three possible paths for India's future—one of transformation, one of stagnation, and one in between. The question remains: which road will India take?
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Prime Minister Narendra Modi addressed the CEOs Forum in Paris, underscoring India's economic growth, strong ties with France, and global investment opportunities. Highlighting stable policies, infrastructure advancements, and strides in technology, space, and defence, PM Modi described the event as a convergence of the brightest minds from India and France. Emphasizing innovation, collaboration, and purposeful progress, he reinforced the strategic partnership based on shared democratic values and a commitment to serving the people.
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On PM Modi's official working visit to the US, President and CEO of the US-India Strategic Partnership Forum, Mukesh Aghi said, "This is a very important visit. Basically, the visit is all about ensuring that geopolitical alignment continues. The understanding between the two countries on trade is going to be critical. Economic agenda and focus on technology transfer is going to be critical and obviously there are issues of illegal migration that will be discussed. I think it's important early on that the PM meets with President Trump at least they're aligned in common objectives as driving the growth of both economies to a higher level...It is also about setting up expectations as to what direction you want to drive this relationship. Will they discuss trade, absolutely they will discuss trade? Will they agree to move forward on some kind of trade partnership? Absolutely..." On the issue of Indian citizens living illegally in the US deported to India handcuffed, he says, "...I empathize that they should not be handcuffed and chained as they're moving. But you have to understand there's a law and the example is Strauss-Kahn, the IMF chief who was arrested in New York City and he was running for President of France. He was arrested. He was put in handcuffs. Why? Because that's the law? So I think if there's a law, they're following that law and they're not making exceptions to anybody. The MEA has made an appeal and others have talked to it. Hopefully, there'll be some empathy and sympathy towards the process
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The survey emphasised that the path to further industrialisation hinges on deregulation, R&D, and upskilling the workforce. "A strong commitment to R&D should be ingrained in industry’s core values, as it is essential for global competitiveness and profitability," it added.
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The Union Budget 2025 is set to be presented by Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman.
The Budget is likely to focus on changes in the income tax structure and improving the ease of doing business in India among other things.
Interestingly, this will be Sitharaman’s seventh Budget presentation with five full term ones and one interim budget presented earlier this year.
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India's nominal GDP is likely to miss the government's growth target for the second year in a row. We break down the latest estimates, the impact on fiscal deficit targets, and what experts are predicting for FY26.
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Private consumption is expected to account for 4.1 percentage points of the 6.4 percent GDP growth this fiscal year
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A precise nominal GDP estimate for Budget 2025 will be determined after the statistics ministry releases its first advance estimate of GDP growth for FY25 in January.
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LIVE: India’s economy is expected to have slowed in the July-September quarter. The slowdown is being attributed to sluggish urban consumption, high food prices. Will the next two quarters see a turn? Or is there more pain ahead. Tune in for the complete story behind the numbers.
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The 10 forecasters in the November Moneycontrol poll predicted the economy would grow 6.8 percent in FY25, with forecasts ranging from 6.6 percent to 7 percent
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Consumption cannot stand on the one foot of spending by the affluent
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Investors often seek a theme that can play an outsized role in a country’s economic growth. India has three in contention, with a confluence of factors making a strong case in their favour. The key question is one outweighs the others
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The IMF forecast that the global output will expand 3.2 percent, 0.1 percentage point slower than its July estimate, and predicted that inflation will slow down to 4.3 percent next year from 5.8 percent in 2024
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The GVA or gross value added number is more relevant this quarter, and this number at 6.8 percent is stronger in the April-June quarter than it was in the previous Jan-March quarter
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Sanghnomics: India’s indigenous economic models have always emphasized on restrained consumption. However, the Western economic models, especially those following the Keynesian school of thought have led to reckless consumption
