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Developed markets may no longer continue to outperform the emerging markets, says Chief Executive Officer of Deutsche Bank India, Ravneet Gill. The rupee too, continues to perform better than other emerging market currencies, he adds.
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Rising dollar strength is negative for EMs and so the trade of being pro-developed markets and short EM would continue for some more time, said Shane Oliver, Head Investment Strategy & Chief Economist, AMP Capital Investors.
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As the world's biggest trader in goods, China is crucial to the global economy and its performance affects partners from Australia to Zambia, which have been battered by its slowing growth -- while it faces headwinds itself in key developed markets.
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We agree that the medium-to-longer term outlook is starting to favour emerging markets over next 1 year but see considerable tactical risk to the emerging markets versus developed markets trade, says Caesar Maasry of Goldman Sachs.
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The US Fed kept rates unchanged on Wednesday while explicitly saying it intends to move off its zero rate policy. Speaking about the sudden overt reference to rate revision in December, Ian Hui, Global Market Strategist at JPMorgan Asset Management said he assigns a 45 percent chance of a rate hike in December.
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While rebuffing the idea that India can rally even if emerging markets fall, Manishi Raychaudhuri, Asia-Pacific Strategist, BNP Paribas says: "India remains an island, and as a consequence, on a relative basis, I think it would outperform the market complex."
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V Anantharaman, MD of Standard Chartered Bank, South Asia, says in times of volatility, fund flows are always from emerging markets to developed markets.
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Hartmut Issel of UBS prefers developing markets to emerging markets at this point, though he feels today's sell-off may have been overdone
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In the evolving world of technology, we are excited about the “Internet of Things†which is being touted as the next big thing.
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Marc Faber says emerging markets have become relatively inexpensive versus developed markets. Investors are now realizing how inexpensive these EMs are and hence more money is flowing in, he adds.
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India at the moment has leadership premium and market expected growth premium, Anup Bagchi, MD and CEO of ICICI Securities says. According to him, strong balance sheets are being bought aggressively.
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Nipun Mehta, founder and chief executive officer, Blue Ocean Capital Advisors believes the gap between developed and emerging markets (EMs) is decreasing but FIIs are likely to park their funds in the former.
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According to Hans Goetti of Banque Internationale the ECB has delivered more than the market expected, which could eventually lead to quantitative easing and expansion of ECB balance sheet.
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The company said global sales volumes rose 1 percent in the quarter. Volumes in North America fell 1 percent, while those in Europe grew just 1 percent as consumer spending remained subdued.
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As far as India goes, Manpreet Gill, Senior Investment Strategist, Standard Chartered believes the country faces political risks running into elections. However, he adds, improvement in the current account deficit situation is a reason to be relatively positive on India. He has a neutral view on India.
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Mauro Ratto, Head, Emerging Markets, Pioneer Investments has a constructive view on EMs. He says Asian stocks are trading at interesting levels. Within Asia, he is overweight on China and India.
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The first reaction of global investors when they hear tapering and decline in liquidity, is a pullback from emerging markets and that is what happened over the last few weeks said Andrew Economos, Head-Sovereign & Institutional Strategy, JPMorgan AMC
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Clive McDonnell, head of emerging-markets equity strategy, Standard Chartered Bank recommends investors to look at sectors such as the consumer discretionary space, telecom space and also selective energy names.
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"When there is a degree of confidence particularly in the US and in the large US investor community, that confidence actually spills over favorably to the rest of the world as opposed to unfavorably," Piyush Gupta, chief executive of DBS Group.
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Richard Iley, Chief Asia Economist, BNP Paribas says if US fundamentals continue to gain strength and India's macro fundamentals remain as challenging and there is no breakout election result, whatever shape or form that takes, there will be risks to the downside for the equity market over the next six months or so.
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Nomura India's top buy continues to be HCL and Cognizant. From a one-year perspective, it sees 15-20 percent upside in IT stocks from current levels.
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Manish Singh of Crossbridge Capital FIIs are defiintely taking a closer interest in emerging markets becasue of lack of growth in developed markets.
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Rishav Dev of Quant Capital says as per EPFR data, on a four week basis India has already seen outflows of close to USD 344 million. He feels developed markets, in particular Europe, would continue to see more inflows when compared to emerging markets.
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Emerging markets' demand for commodities may not pick up the slack, he noted. India, for example has had a complete deceleration of investment, with at least USD 120 billion of projects stalled by the end of last year, he said.
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Fed‘s trimming of growth forecast has led to a reversal in view once again with focus shifting to emerging markets, away from the developed markets. Sunil Garg, managing director of JPMorgan Securities sees the rupee going below 60 per USD in the near-term.
