Remarks by US Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen late Thursday suggesting the central bank could still raise rates this year sparked fresh selling on Friday, with the Malaysian ringgit and Indonesian rupiah falling to their lowest levels since the Asian financial crisis in 1998
Adrian Mowat of JPMorgan believes China is far from being in recession. He bases his argument on the strong data coming out of the country that shows that auto sales have risen 8% and home sales are up 20% this year
As the dollar has surged this year and oil has continued to crumble, emerging market currencies have felt the pain. The real has fallen 16 percent against the dollar year to date, dropping nearly a full percent on Tuesday alone—a huge move for a currency.
The market is now presenting an opportunity to invest for the long-term in sectors like IT, metals, banks, telecom etc, says S Naren of ICICI Prudential AMC.
However, given that fundamentals of India better placed than Russia and Brazil, Nizam Idris of Macquarie Bank is confident of rupee outperforming against other EM currencies.
Emerging markets have seen a brutal sell-off this year after sharp falls in the value of the Argentine peso, Turkish lira, South African rand and Brazilian real triggered panic selling across the asset class, with analysts largely blaming the turbulence on the Federal Reserve's move to begin tapering its asset purchases.
The selloff spread to emerging market currencies in Asia on Monday morning, as the Malaysian ringgit hit a fresh four-year low against the dollar, the Philippines peso hovered close to its four-year low and the Indonesian rupiah hit a two-week low against the greenback.
Technically, the dollar-yen pair is in a clear uptrend. After breaching the symmetrical triangle on the upside, the pair has been consistently moving northwards. A sustained closing above 103.70 will lead the pair higher towards 105 levels.
Steve Brice, chief investment strategist, Standard Chartered Bank believes as long as the data coming out of the US continues to be strong, markets will take tapering in its stride.
Paul Mackel of HSBC says there is still some very good yield in the Indian rupee, Malaysian ringgit and Brazilian real.
According to CNBC-TV18's Latha Venkatesh, the dollar seems to have had a slightly upper hand and should therefore, open higher today, higher than 61.26-61.30 or thereabouts. But the cues are still very nebulous.
Although emerging market currencies have depreciated significantly, Brazilian real and Indian rupee have fallen more than the others, says Nirmal Bang research report.
According to CNBC-TV18‘s Latha Venkatesh RBI will try to defend the key 61.21 level.
The trend in the US Labour market suggests the Fed is probably on track for a September tapering of its quantitative easing programme, says Nicholas Ferres of Eastspring.
Let us examine the parallel movement between Brazilian Real versus Indian rupee which has correlation of more than 90 percent since 2011, though distorted for a while in September 2012 but now its back on track.
The fall of the rupee has forced the Finance Ministry to take necessary steps to arrest the fall, besides which there are other near term triggers in which currency selling is a bit difficult.
All four BRIC currencies will recoup at least some of their recent heavy losses over the next 12 months, a Reuters poll showed on Wednesday.