The Indian currency has weakened 9.5% so far this year, with the central bank defending the rupee via dollar sales that have depleted its forex reserves to $545 billion from the peak of $642 billion a year ago.
"Deterioration in quality of spending (increase in revenue/capex ratio) remains a concern. Deviation from the fiscal glide path is a risk and could trigger bond yields/interest rates spiral," says Abheek Barua, Chief Economist at HDFC Bank.
Abheek Barua, Chief Economist at HDFC Bank is of the view that government committed to a fiscal deficit to GDP target of 3.5 percent for 2016-17.
The central bank today left the key policy rate unchanged but indicated at accommodative stance, saying with inflation moving closer to the target there would be more room for rate cut to support growth.
Urjit Patel - the architect of a switch to formally target inflation, among other changes - is likely to stay on as a deputy governor when his three-year term ends next week, government and policymaker sources said.
Abheek Barua, chief economist at HDFC Bank, says the emphasis is shifting towards consumption through OROP and the 7th Pay Commission. At the same time, financial savings may not pick-up if inflation rises and real rates fall
Abheek Barua, Consultant at ICRIER, feels the Reserve Bank should cut rates in today's policy as inflation has seen a dramatic decline. Stating that stage is set, Barua expects a 25-bps rate cut in today's credit policy. He sees January CPI at around 5.6 percent to 5.7 percent.
Finance Minister said his fisc numbers are right and slammed the critics for questioning the integrity of north block.
The Reserve Bank of India may sweeten its expected 25 basis point interest rate cut on Friday with a similar reduction in the cash reserve ratio to ease tight market liquidity conditions as increasingly benign inflation gives it room to manoeuvre.
There are two things in our opinion that make putting “Budget FY14†together especially difficult for Finance minister P. Chidambaram.
There are two things in our opinion that make putting “Budget FY14†together especially difficult for Finance minister P. Chidambaram.
Finance Minister P. Chidambaram is putting welfare, defence and road projects on the chopping block in a last-ditch attempt to hit a tough fiscal deficit target by March, risking short-term economic growth and angering cabinet colleagues.
Leading economists said the RBI decision to keep the key policy rates unchanged was on expected lines and expressed hope that with inflation now treading down it would change its policy stance by next month.
Whether May inflation numbers put forward a case for CRR cut, a repo cut or a combination of two is debated by a panel of three top notch economists on CNBC-TV18.
Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee is sure to be an unhappy man after Standard & Poor's cut India's outlook to negative from stable.
Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee proposed trimming the government's subsidy burden and called for speeding the pace of economic reforms, which have been stalled by political gridlock, in his budget speech on Friday.
Budgets in India go much beyond providing a simple statement of accounts for the government. They have, over the years, acquired the status of the government’s principal policy document, often straying into areas that are outside the technical ambit of the exchequer.
After Prime Minister's Economic Advisory Council (PMEAC) forecast on inflation at 6.5% for FY12; Abheek Barua of HDFC Bank told CNBC-TV18 that the WPI inflation for March would be around 7-7.2%.
At the Indian Association of Investment Professionals (IAIP) Forecast, experts discuss about the various asset classes and equities and share their outlook for FY12.
Is the RBI truly helpless against the inflation menace? In an interview with CNBC-TV18’s Shereen Bhan, Abheek Barua, Chief Economist, HDFC Bank and Shanto Ghosh, Principal Economist, Deloitte (India), answer.
A day after the food inflation crossed the 18% mark the government has stepped up efforts. In an interview with CNBC-TV18, noted economists Suman Bery, director general of NCAER & Abheek Barua, chief economist, HDFC Bank debated on the issue.