Motilal Oswal's research report on ICICI Bank
ICICI Bank (ICICIBC) reported another strong quarter (RoA of 2.4%), led by robust loan growth, stable asset quality and a slight decline in margins. Core PPoP grew 35% YoY, while NIMs moderated 12bp QoQ to 4.8%. Business growth was strong, with overall loans growing 18% YoY. Asset quality remained broadly stable with PCR at 83%. The bank maintains a total contingency buffer of INR131b. ICICIBC is well positioned to deliver steady earnings, supported by pristine asset quality and strong momentum in business growth. We estimate RoA/RoE of 2.2%/17.9% in FY25. After a strong outperformance backed by robust earnings growth (3yr CAGR of ~60%), we estimate earnings growth to moderate to an 18% CAGR over FY23-25, affected largely by a decline in margins and limited levers available on the opex/credit cost front. We thus expect stock returns to be moderate for ICICIBC and many other large-cap banking stocks. Maintain BUY.
Outlook
We expect stock returns to be more moderate for ICICIBC and many other large-cap banking stocks. Retain Buy with our unchanged SoTP-based TP of INR1,150 (2.6x FY’25E ABV).
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