Will 2023 assembly elections impact the 2024 verdict?

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The year 2023 is going to be packed with political drama as nine states and a union territory are going to the polls, starting March. These assembly elections are expected to set the tone for the 2024 general elections.

Polls are scheduled in Tripura, Meghalaya, Nagaland, Mizoram, Karnataka, Telangana, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh, and the union territory of Jammu and Kashmir.

In the run-up to the polls, the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has already started its preparations with rallies and public meetings being held in the aforementioned states by national-level leaders.

The country’s principal opposition party, the Congress is focusing on retaining the states where they are currently in power. The party sees a ray of hope in the masses that have come out in support of party leader Rahul Gandhi’s Bharat Jodo yatra. The Congress has to, literally, go the extra mile as it confronts a leadership crisis.

On the other hand, according to political experts, the BJP’s victories in several states has further emboldened the party.

Sanjay Kumar, a political analyst and Professor at the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS) said that as far as the BJP was concerned, the verdict of 2024 was already written on the walls.

“What’s to be seen is whether the party improves its tally or not. State assembly results will have no impact on the party's performance in the Lok Sabha elections. In 2018, Congress was victorious in three major states, including Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, and Rajasthan. But in the Lok Sabha elections, the BJP won the majority of the seats in these states,” said Sanjay Kumar.

In 2019, of 29 Lok Sabha seats in Madhya Pradesh, the BJP pocketed 28. Similarly, the party scooped up all the 25 Lok Sabha seats in Rajasthan. In Chhattisgarh, of the 11 seats, it won nine. Overall, the BJP had polled 37.36 percent of the votes, the highest since 1989, and won 303 seats.

“It will be an easy victory for the BJP as Congress’s house is not in order. People’s trust in the party is declining, even its own leaders are looking helpless,’’ said Kumar.

“Congress is beset by infighting and factionalism. In Madhya Pradesh, its government fell due to the infighting between Jyotiraditya Scindia and Kamal Nath. In Rajasthan, there’s no end to the tussle between Ashok Gehlot and Sachin Pilot,” added Kumar.

Commenting on the Bharat Jodo yatra, Kumar said the march had helped Rahul Gandhi as he is seen as a serious leader now. “But it needs to been seen whether the party gets enough votes in the states it has passed through,” said Kumar.

After a nine-day break in Delhi, Bharat Jodo yatra will enter Uttar Pradesh on January 3. The yatra arrived in Delhi on December 24, after covering a distance of 2,800 kilometres.

“When it comes to general elections people see the leadership at the top, where Prime Minister Narendra Modi doesn’t have a strong opponent,’’ explained Kumar, adding that the party would exploit Ram Mandir and the Central Vista.

“The party will put a positive spin by saying that people of India have gained independence from British slavery in reality as a new parliament building has come up,” Kumar said.

However, the opinion of political observer Rasheed Kidwai differs from Kumar. He said that the political arithmetic may change in 2024.

“If Congress touches 100 or more seats, it will be difficult for the BJP to form the government on its own. The BJP has lost its allies, the Shiv Sena in Maharashtra and JDU in Bihar. If these parties also perform well, it will be even more problematic for the saffron party,” said Kidwai.

The Congress has a good chance of gaining seats in the Lok Sabha and assembly elections in states like Karnataka, Rajasthan, and Madhya Pradesh, said Kidwai.  “People have tried the BJP, but faced many issues related to governance,’’ he added.

“In 2004, many had said there was no opposition to (former PM and BJP leader) Atal Bihari Vajpayee, but the UPA came to power. Whenever there is a strong leader, alternatives emerge,” Kidwai added.

In the 1977, 1989, 1996, and 2004 general elections, the opposition unseated the incumbent.

“In 2024, the calculus may change. The BJP may form the government, but it’s going to be a bumpy ride this time,” he said.