Boon or Bane? Why Ajit Pawar’s political ‘neutrality’ could cut both ways

The Ajit Pawar-led faction of the NCP faced a severe setback after four of its top leaders quit the party last week. (File Photo: PTI)

Anyone who has followed the happenings in Maharashtra over the last five years would know the significance Ajit Pawar holds in the state’s political landscape. The nephew of Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) founder Sharad Pawar, a man hailed as the ‘Chanakya’ of Maharashtra politics, Ajit Pawar learned the tropes early in his political career.

So, when Ajit decided to end his political association with his uncle, and left with a majority of the NCP MLAs, it was seen as his bid to emerge from his uncle’s towering shadow. It also displayed his ambition to chart his own political course.

Ironically, the move also brought to mind Sharad Pawar's 1999 rebellion, when he founded the NCP after being expelled from the Congress. Like his octogenarian uncle, Ajit has proven himself to be an astute leader who tends to keep his options open. However, his so-called political fluidity is now begetting a sense of political isolation.

How the tables turned

Within days, he joined the Mahayuti government of the BJP and Eknath Shinde’s Shiv Sena and returned as the Deputy CM for the fifth time, the second in the current tenure of the Maharashtra Assembly. With a majority of the NCP MLAs on his side, he then got hold of the NCP’s party name and symbol and relegated senior Pawar to the sidelines.

All appeared to be going well for Ajit Pawar until the Lok Sabha elections revealed that the split he caused in the NCP did not have the people’s blessings. The NCP (Sharad Pawar) won eight of the 10 seats it contested while the Ajit Pawar faction – the real NCP (as recognised by EC) – bagged just one of the four seats it contested as part of the Mahayuti.

The RSS pushback

The aftermath for Ajit Pawar was as brutal as the poll outcome. His request to accommodate Praful Patel in the Union Cabinet was ignored by the BJP. This, despite the fact that BJP gave HAM, which also won just 1 seat, a berth in the Modi 3.0 Cabinet. Days later, RSS weekly ‘Organiser’ squarely blamed the induction of NCP for the BJP’s poor showing in Maharashtra in the general elections.

Last week, an article in Marathi weekly magazine ‘Vivek’ doubled down on the attack. It said that public sentiment turned sharply against the BJP following its “unholy” alliance with Ajit Pawar-led NCP, subsequently leading to its poor performance in the parliamentary elections in Maharashtra.

The articles by RSS-backed magazines, claimed Ajit’s opponents, were subtle hints by the BJP asking him to quit the alliance and return to his uncle. NCP (SP) spokesperson Clyde Crasto said that the BJP realises that turning around its fortunes from the lows in the Lok Sabha polls to success in the upcoming Assembly elections in Maharashtra will be tough if Ajit Pawar continues to be on their side.

"The article in the weekly (Vivek) is one of the ways they are trying to distance themselves from Ajit Pawar and probably asking him to leave (Mahayuti) in one way or the other," he claimed. The BJP’s tally dropped dramatically from 23 in 2019 to nine in the 2024 general elections.

The biggest battle

Hit by a series of defections since the Lok Sabha elections – four of its top leaders resigned in Maharashtra's Pimpri Chinchwad – and mounting pressure to weigh his future in the alliance, the NCP under Ajit Pawar now faces an unprecedented challenge.

His recent admission that fielding his wife against his sister from Baramati was “a mistake” has been interpreted as him weighing his options, including a return to the Sharad Pawar fold of the NCP. Pawar Sr. has not completely ruled out the option either.

When asked about the possibility of Ajit’s return, Sharad Pawar said that no decision would be taken without consulting his party colleagues who stood by him before taking any step in this matter.

The series of events over the past few months show how the tables have turned against Ajit Pawar since his rebellion against his uncle. As he heads into what will be the toughest Assembly elections in his career, it is notable to see how he has been left to fight a battle for existence after being touted as the NDA’s blue-eyed boy who had outsmarted one of the BJP’s toughest opponents.