Assembly elections results — a setup for 2019 Lok Sabha polls?

BJP Congress Jharkhand election results 2019

The Indian National Congress, on December 11 and the wee hours of December 12, won crucial assembly elections in Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan.

While the party lost in Mizoram and Telangana, the victories in the Hindi heartland states has given it a boost ahead of the Lok Sabha elections in 2019.

The results assume significance as they come less than four months before the general elections get underway. The elections in all of the three ‘Hindi belt’ states were direct contests between the Congress and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) — two of the largest national parties.

According to political observers, the losses are a major setback for the BJP.

Here’s a look at some of the key points of impact these results are likely to have on the 2019 polls:

Could help bind opposition

A win in the three Hindi heartland states is likely to help Congress pose as an umbrella party within the united opposition ahead of the general elections. It would also send out a message that there could be no opposition alliance without having the Congress on board.

Addressing the media on December 11, Gandhi said “the ideology of SP (Samajwadi Party) and BSP (Bahujan Samaj Party) is similar to that of the Congress”.

The following day, both BSP and SP reiterated their support for the Congress in Madhya Pradesh.

The post-poll alliance forged here could help the three sides negotiate the seat-sharing formula for 2019 more effectively.

Shrinking ‘saffron’ map

With these three wins, Congress’ position with respect to the number of states it governs has drastically changed. Prior to these wins, Congress had governments in four states and Union Territories — Punjab, Karnataka, Pondicherry and Mizoram (which it failed to retain).

Also read: With Congress’ 3-0 win in Hindi heartland, saffron map shrinks

Boost for Rahul Gandhi’s popularity

Congress President Rahul Gandhi had campaigned intensely in these states. The victories are likely to boost Gandhi’s popularity and acceptability among masses, similar to what was observed after the Gujarat election campaign in 2017 (even as Congress lost). Critics, however, claim that the victories were less to do with Gandhi’s campaign and more due to the local anti-incumbency.

Gaining popularity could help him significantly while squaring off against Prime Minister Narendra Modi in a possible presidential-style battle in 2019.

Additionally, the trend in these states could transfer to other states in the region such as Haryana, Uttar Pradesh and Jharkhand.

BJP hopeful of retaining more LS seats

Despite the loses, BJP received 33 percent vote share in Chhattisgarh, 41 percent (0.1 percent higher than Congress) in Madhya Pradesh and 38.8 percent in Rajasthan.

Going into 2019, BJP will be hopeful that their ability to retain significant vote share in spite of anti-incumbency could help them not drop too many seats in the ‘Hindi belt’.

The 3-0 people’s verdict in favour of the Congress has set up a close contest for 2019. It has also narrowed the gap between Congress and the ‘united opposition’ and the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA).

Congress will have to deliver

Congress had made promises such as farm loan waivers in all three states in its election manifesto. The party will have to deliver on its key promises to be able to catch votes in the general election. The party also faces the tough task of job creation. Non-fulfilment of promises could turn the voters away.

‘King’ of Telangana, ‘kingmaker’ in Delhi?

K Chandrashekar Rao-led Telugu Rashtra Samithi (TRS) retained India’s newest state with a decisive mandate on December 12. TRS win 88 out of the 119 seats, reducing the principle opposition party Congress to under 20 seats.

It will be the second consecutive term for KCR as chief minister of the state.

Shortly after the victory, KCR spoke of a ‘BJP-mukt, Congress-mukt India’. He also said a new national party, as a consortium of regional parties may emerge “very soon”.

In the 2014 Lok Sabha polls, TRS had won 11 out of the 17 parliamentary seats in the state. TRS would now be hoping to improve this tally. With an improved number of seats, KCR could play ‘kingmaker’ in the event of a hung Parliament.

BJP’s hope for Northeast gains

While BJP managed to win just one seat in Mizoram, it would draw some respite from the fact that Congress lost power in the state. Congress was beaten by the Mizo National Front (MNF), which is a BJP ally. BJP and MNF had, however, fought the assembly polls separately.

Mizoram was the last Congress-ruled state in the Northeast. The BJP is hoping to make gains in the region to offset losses it might make in north India.

Assembly Elections 2018: Read the latest news, views and analysis here