RBI policy, auto sales, global data points to map the road ahead for markets: Experts
The positive divergence and crossover on the hourly time frame also suggests that the probability of a pullback is high. Thus, both price and momentum indicator suggest that there can be a positive momentum over the next few trading sessions
The weak global cues, including the likely rate hikes by the Federal Reservce, dollar strength, higher US bond yields, rising crude oil prices, and FII selling, keep the domestic benchmark indices volatile in the last week of September. Last week, BSE Sensex was down 0.27 percent or 180.74 points to end at 65,828.41, and the Nifty50 fell 0.18 percent or 35.95 points to close at 19,638.30.
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Pravesh Gour, Senior Technical Analyst, Swastika Investmart | The Indian stock market will closely monitor the Reserve Bank Governor-headed six-member monetary policy committee (MPC) meeting, which is scheduled for October 4–6, 2023. Reports suggest that the RBI is likely to maintain its pause on interest rate hikes at this meeting. Market participants will keep an eye on the movement of the rupee against the dollar and crude oil prices. Investments by foreign institutional investors (FIIs) and domestic institutional investors (DIIs) will also be monitored. The Nifty is witnessing a correction where 19,500 is an immediate demand zone. The potential target on the downside is the 19,300–19,250 zone. On the upside, 19,800 is an immediate and critical hurdle; above this, we can expect bulls to get a grip for a move towards the 20,000–20,200 zone.
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Arvinder Singh Nanda, Senior Vice President, of Master Capital Services | The market will take cues from some major domestic and global macroeconomic data such as S&P Global Manufacturing PMI and Services PMI data of different countries, API Weekly Crude Oil Stock, OPEC Meeting, US Factory orders, crude oil inventories, US Initial Jobless claims, India Interest rate decision, RBI Monetary and Credit Information Review, India Forex Reserves, US Non-Farm Payroll, US unemployment rate, auto sales number will be in focus. The Nifty has experienced a notable correction, declining approximately 3 percent from its all-time high. However, on the weekly chart, we are witnessing some encouraging signs of bullish momentum. The formation of a bullish Doji star pattern, coupled with the presence of a bullish trendline originating from the downward movement, suggests a potential reversal in sentiment. One key level to watch is 19,500, which represents a significant demand zone. This level is likely to attract more buyers who see it as an opportunity to enter the market for upside potential to 20,000 marks. Below 19,500, it is likely to be a bearish sign for the targets of 19,000-18,800.
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Jatin Gedia – Technical Research Analyst at Sharekhan by BNP Paribas | On the daily charts, the Nifty has not witnessed follow-through selling pressure from the previous trading session. In fact, it managed to close above the 19,600 zone which is a positive sign. The positive divergence and crossover on the hourly time frame also suggests that the probability of a pullback is high. Thus, both price and momentum indicator suggest that there can be a positive momentum over the next few trading sessions. In terms of levels, 19,500 – 19,480 is the crucial support zone. while 19,780 – 19,840 shall act as an immediate hurdle zone.
Rupak De, Senior Technical analyst at LKP Securities | The Nifty ended September with gains, following a weak August closing. The recent selling pressure was halted around the 50EMA. However, we need to close above 19,750 to witness a decent rally over the short term. A close or sustained move above 19,750 might take the Nifty on a ride towards 20,500-20,700. On the flip side, a fall below 19,470 might trigger the resumption of the downtrend.
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Amol Athawale, Vice President - Technical Research, Kotak Securities | On technical formation, we believe that the market is due for a short-term upward pull-back in the near term. It has formed a long-legged doji formation, which may see trending activity on either side. Below 19,490, the Nifty could fall to 19,400 or 19,200 levels. On the other hand, above 19,750, it would move to 19,900-20,000 levels. The real trend will emerge only if the index manages to cross the level of 20,250.
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Shrikant Chouhan, Head of Research (Retail), Kotak Securities | While global cues will continue to dictate trends in local markets, focus will shift to the RBI's monetary policy announcement on Friday. Although the market is expecting a status quo on interest rates, global concerns like rising US dollar index and bond yields coupled with surging crude oil prices continue to weigh on investors' minds. Further, persistent FII selling in emerging markets, including India, in September has taken a toll on markets. If FII outflows gain pace, markets could be in for extended downward spiral, as overseas investors would park their funds in the safe haven dollar securities.
