Will BJP’s CAA promise in Bengal mar its chances in Assam?

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A good talking point in West Bengal need not have the same effect in neighbouring Assam when it comes to the controversial Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA).

Yet a degree of political boldness has come to characterise the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) as it aims to retain power in Assam, and feverishly tries to end the decade-old rule of the Mamata Banerjee-led Trinamool Congress in West Bengal.

Both states go to the polls starting March 27, with Assam having it over three phases and West Bengal over eight.

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No CAA in Assam

In Assam, the BJP would rather not talk about the CAA. It has become a hot topic for its leaders to defend — because of the trauma associated with the botched-up National Register of Citizens as well as the bitter opposition to the granting citizenship to anyone from Bangladesh, Hindu or Muslim.
The fear of the influx of refugees and being swamped by outsiders remains a constant fear which transcends political differences in Assam.

The BJP, while releasing its manifesto in Assam, has promised to work on "a corrected National Register of Citizens (NRC)". BJP President JP Nadda said, "We will work on a corrected NRC for Assam's protection. We will protect genuine Indian citizens and detect infiltrators to ensure the Ahom civilisation stays safe."

In fact, Congress leader Rahul Gandhi released the party’s manifesto on March 20, which promises, among others, a law to nullify the CAA. It pledged to take necessary steps to solve the problem of illegal immigrants based on the March 25, 1971 cut-off date, which was prescribed in the Assam Accord that was signed between the Rajiv Gandhi government and the All Assam Students Union (AASU). The Congress, if elected to power, will also start the process of identifying illegal immigrants as per the decision of the Supreme Court.

CAA in West Bengal

Contrary to its stand in Assam, the BJP in West Bengal has promised implementation of the CAA, which Home Minister Amit Shah declared would be its decision in its first cabinet meeting if it wins the seat of power in Kolkata.

With the eye on Hindu migrants, such as the Matuas who have suffered deprivation over the years, Shah has pledged Rs 10,000 as annual financial aid to each refugee family for five years.

However, can the BJP balance its interests in Assam and West Bengal where the CAA is a major issue?

The BJP’s assertion on the CAA in West Bengal has come even as the rules of the CAA, though passed by Parliament in December 2019, are yet to be implemented. Earlier, Shah had cited the pandemic as the reason for its delay.

Late in 2019, the enactment of the CAA had provoked several Muslim bodies to stage public sit-ins for months in Delhi and other cities.Changing Alliances

In 2016, the BJP, the Asom Gana Parishad (AGP) and the Bodoland Peoples’ Front (BPF) forged an alliance. The BJP bagged 60 seats, the AGP 14 and the BPF 12 in the 126-member assembly. The Congress, led by the then chief minister late Tarun Gogoi won 26 seats. Perfume-king Badruddin Ajmal-led All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF) had contested separately and won 13 seats.

In 2021, the alliances have undergone many changes.

Of course, the BJP and the AGP are in alliance, but the BPF has joined a mahajoth (grand alliance) of the Congress and the AIUDF.

This is the first time the Congress and the AIUDF have gone for an open alliance, along with the Anchalik Gana Morcha and three Left parties, to avoid a split in the anti-BJP votes.

Challenges Before BJP

So, the BJP has many reasons to worry following this arrangement. First, after the Bodoland Territorial Council (BTC) election in 2020, the BJP took a big risk of dumping the BPF and aligning with the United People’s Party Liberal (UPPL) to capture power in the council.

In Upper Assam, which goes to polls with 47 seats at stake on March 27, the anti-CAA movement reverberated strongly. A setback in these 47 seats could jeopardise retaining power in the state. In 2016, the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) won 36 of those seats.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Shah, Defence Minister Rajnath Singh, Textiles Minister Smriti Irani and Nadda have carefully avoided the CAA issue and focused on achievements in the development sector, and upgrade in infrastructure under Chief Minister Sarbananda Sonowal in the last five years.

Apart from the Congress-AIUDF combine, the BJP also faces risks in pockets where the newly-formed front of the Assam Jatiya Parishad and the Raijor Dal, which have made opposition to the CAA as their main poll plank, are prominent.

BJP’s Push

Local BJP leaders, however, tell their voters that the Centre is committed to its assurance that the CAA would not be allowed to change the demographics in Assam. They attack the Congress and its alliance with Ajmal, who is labelled by those opposing him as the messiah of Bangladeshi Muslims who came into Assam and obtained legal documents.

Senior BJP leaders keep assuring their cadre that the CAA is not the only issue on which voters will cast their preference. The welfare measures rolled out for tea garden workers and indigenous tribes are expected to bring dividends for the BJP.

No CM Face

An interesting feature is that neither the NDA nor the Congress-led alliance is projecting a chief ministerial candidate.

Despite rooting for Sonowal’s performance, the BJP has chosen to play its cards carefully.
By asking its top strategist in Assam, Himanta Biswa Sarma, to contest the polls, Shah and his team are keeping options open on the issue of the next Chief Minister — largely due to uncertainty over the numbers of seats likely to be won by the BJP.

Sarma, who is sanguine about his future after playing second fiddle to Sonowal, is the man to watch if the BJP falls short of numbers.