Why the ‘Tiger’ need not dance with the ‘Dragon’

China is now desperate and is seeking India's support to counter the US onslaught on its economy.

(Sanghnomics is a weekly column that tracks down and demystifies the economic world view of Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) and organisations inspired by its ideology.)

US President Donald Trump’s decision to double tariffs on Chinese imports has escalated US-China tensions. Amidst this jostling, Chinese authorities have made two interesting statements.

The Chinese embassy in Washington stated on X: "If war is what the US wants—be it a tariff war, a trade war, or any other type of war—we're ready to fight till the end."

A few days later, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi called for greater cooperation between New Delhi and Beijing to counter "hegemonism and power politics." Many media outlets quoted his comment that the Dragon (China) and the Elephant (India) should "dance together."

However, China needs to recognise that India should no longer be stereotyped as an "elephant." Over the last ten years, India has transformed into a "tiger", capable of turning adversities into opportunities on the global stage.

It is clear that China is now desperate and is seeking India's support to counter the US onslaught on its economy. The crucial question, then, is whether the tiger and the dragon should indeed "dance together," as China suggests.

Why India is Unlikely to Align with China

Such a scenario is improbable for both ideological and practical reasons.

From an ideological standpoint, the position of the Swadeshi Jagaran Manch (SJM)—an organisation inspired by the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS), the ideological mentor of the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)—is indicative. SJM’s stance often reflects the swadeshi (self-reliance) mindset of the Indian government.

Dr Ashwani Mahajan, National Co-convenor of the SJM, is categorical in his opinion that India stands to gain from the US-China trade war. “India can take advantage of the US curbs on Chinese imports by offering cost-effective and reliable high-quality alternatives,” he states.

SJM has consistently led campaigns in India against cheap Chinese imports, which have severely impacted domestic industries. It has actively advocated for the boycott of Chinese goods. Through the Make in India initiative and restrictions on Chinese imports, the Narendra Modi government has revived numerous industries that were on the brink of collapse due to Chinese dumping. For security reasons, several Chinese companies and apps have been barred from operating in India. This perception of China as a security threat remains unchanged. How, then, can the tiger dance with the dragon when the latter remains untrustworthy and a threat to national security?

Dr Sriparna Pathak, a leading expert on Chinese affairs, further analyses the current situation: “China's stance is merely a façade. If they were genuinely serious about cooperation, they wouldn’t impose both tariff and non-tariff barriers on Indian exports while simultaneously flooding the Indian market with their goods. While many are aware of China’s tariff barriers, its non-tariff barriers are also extremely high and significantly hinder Indian exports.”

Thus far, China has made no effort to improve this situation. Yet, it has the audacity to seek India's cooperation in countering US economic pressures.

According to Dr Pathak, India’s trade deficit with China has been continuously expanding, while its trade balance with the US remains in surplus. Consequently, it is in India's best interest to strengthen ties with the US rather than align with China. “China cannot be trusted,” she adds.

History has repeatedly shown that whenever China faces economic distress, it turns to India for assistance—without any reciprocal benefits. Geopolitically, China continues to undermine India’s interests, and now, feeling the heat from US trade policies, it seeks to entangle India in its dispute.

Dr Pathak cautions that India must not get caught in the crossfire between the US and China and should instead focus on safeguarding its own interests. She also highlights an important aspect of the US-China tariff war: it is not merely an economic dispute. The US is targeting China as part of a broader global strategy, given China's increasing competition with the US on multiple fronts.

The ‘New Great Game’

Many analysts refer to this geopolitical struggle as the "New Great Game," drawing a parallel to "The Great Game"—the 300-year-long strategic rivalry between Russia and Britain over Central Asia. After World War II, a similar competition unfolded between the Soviet Union and the US. Following the Soviet Union's collapse in the late 1980s, this New Great Game has been played between China and the US. To a large extent, Trump’s aggressive stance against China is an outcome of this ongoing contest.

The Way Forward for India

Regarding Trump’s reciprocal tariff measures against India, Dr Mahajan believes they can be addressed through negotiations. He foresees the possibility of a bilateral agreement between India and the US in the coming months. The Modi government has already indicated that such discussions are underway.

Interestingly, Dr Mahajan presents a pragmatic approach to Trump’s pressure on India to lower tariffs. “When it comes to expensive or luxury goods, reducing tariffs may not be a major issue. After all, how many Indians will buy a Harley-Davidson or a Tesla? These are high-end products with a niche market and do not compete with Indian industries that generate significant employment.”

This strategy could be an effective way to meet US demands without harming India’s economic interests. Simultaneously, India should focus on capitalising on the new trade opportunities arising in the US market due to the US-China trade war.

Earlier Sanghnomics columns can be read here.