OPINION | US security guarantees are bleeding credibility as Russia and Israel push boundaries

The reason why US credibility stands diluted among its NATO allies is that President Trump's only public statement was a brief, bemused, and ambivalent social media post

The September 9, 2001, terror attack on the Twin Towers in New York made a startling tactical impact when it happened. It was a tectonic event and shattered the halo of invincibility that the US had acquired after the 1991 war for Kuwait. Thousands of innocent people were killed on that day and the US, with President George Bush at the helm, embarked on GWOT (Global War on Terror), and the whole world supported Washington in its hour of shock and grief.

At a strategic level, US credibility as a superpower that could not be threatened on its mainland was exposed as an invalid assertion, and the non-state entity, in this case, the Osama bin Laden-led al-Qaeda, sheltered by the Taliban in Afghanistan, became the new global security challenge.

‘Graveyard’ of Great Powers

The US vowed to ‘bomb Afghanistan back to the stone age,’ and the blood-soaked events that followed 9/11 over the next two decades served to further undermine US credibility. The Taliban proved to be elusive adversaries, and the covert support they received from the deep state in Pakistan blunted US chances of declaring successful closure, despite expending vast amounts of wealth and precious human lives.

The lowest point was reached in August 2021 when the Taliban returned triumphant to Kabul after a shambolic withdrawal by US troops, ordered by President Joe Biden, from a nation that had turned into the proverbial imperial graveyard of yore.

Bleeding Credibility Across Continents

In an unintended manner, the 24th anniversary of 9/11 on September 9 (Tuesday) saw two major military events unfolding that served to further erode US credibility – this time with President Donald Trump in the White House.

On the night of September 9-10, during a large-scale Russian aerial attack on western Ukraine involving over 400 drones and missiles, at least 19 Russian drones (primarily Iranian-designed Shahed/Gerbera models) entered Polish airspace. This surprise violation of Polish airspace marked a significant escalation in the Russia-Ukraine war that began in February 2022.

Polish and NATO forces scrambled jets and air defences, shooting down several drones. Estimates range from three to eight confirmed intercepts, with up to 23 total drones involved, as per local reports. Debris was recovered across eastern Poland, damaging at least one residential building but causing no casualties. This was the first direct engagement by NATO forces against Russian assets in allied airspace, since Moscow embarked upon its ‘special operations’ in early 2022.

Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk described it as a "large-scale provocation" and invoked NATO's Article 4 for consultations on threats to territorial integrity—the first such invocation since 2022.

A Brief Social Media Post Which Speaks Volumes

The reason why US credibility stands diluted among its NATO allies is that President Trump's only public statement was a brief, bemused, and ambivalent Truth Social post: "What’s with Russia violating Poland’s airspace with drones? Here we go!"

Much to the dismay of the government in Warsaw and other European allies, there was no formal condemnation of Russia for the violation, nor was there a reaffirmation of NATO’s Article 5 commitments, or a pledge to hold President Putin accountable – boilerplate statements that were expected from the White House.

Moscow's official response, issued by the Russian Defence Ministry, maintains that the drone incursion was unintentional and not part of any planned operation against Poland, and Trump critics aver that the US President has already bought into the Russian narrative.

Be that as it may, the current perception among NATO members is that what was once believed to be a robust US security guarantee for its European allies is no longer as credible. When such a perception drives policy, this would have long-term implications.

Qatar’s Humiliation is Unlikely to Leave Anyone in Doubt

The other event impacting US credibility and rectitude, which also occurred on September 9, relates to the Israeli attack on Qatar – ostensibly to target Hamas leaders in a residential building in Doha. This complex housed the political bureau of Hamas since 2012 and some of the negotiators present at the venue on Tuesday were to discuss a US proposal to resolve the Gaza hostage crisis. The unexpected Israeli strike killed six people – five Hamas affiliates (including the son of chief negotiator Khalil al-Hayya) and one Qatari internal security officer, while several civilians were injured.

Qatar, a key mediator in Gaza ceasefire talks along with Egypt and the US, condemned the attack as "state terrorism" and a "flagrant violation of international law," and this attack has infused a surge of Arab unity in the face of Israeli impunity.

Qatar is a close US military ally and houses the major Al Udeid Air Base with over 10,000 US military personnel – and this sprawling complex with the latest air-defense systems is just about 30 km southwest of the capital. How Israeli ordnance could strike their targets in Doha without US knowledge is baffling, and aspersions are being cast on American duplicity.

According to reports from Washington, the US military detected Israeli jets heading toward the Gulf early on September 9 and sought clarification from Tel Aviv. However, by the time confirmation arrived, the missiles were mid-air and en route to the target. President Trump apparently was briefed by the US military shortly before the attack and immediately directed his Middle East envoy, Steve Witkoff, to warn Qatari officials. This was too late, and Qatar's Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman al-Thani stated that the US notification arrived only 10 minutes after the explosions began, thereby rendering it meaningless.

The US being in the dark about a missile strike 30 km from its largest airbase in the region is as convincing as the Pakistani narrative about OBL (Osama bin Laden) and Abbottabad. Whether the US claiming insufficient knowledge about the Israeli attack on Doha stems from military ineptitude or political turpitude is unlikely to be confirmed anytime soon.

What will be abiding is the loss of US credibility that began in September 2001 and has been compounded in 2025, with the loss of trust in the White House – visibly exacerbated by the devious ambivalence of a feckless President.