Tripura polls: All bets on BJP encore are off as erstwhile royal Pradyot Manikya upturns tribal heartland politics

Under Biplab Deb, the BJP looked strong, almost undefeatable. But when he was removed from the Chief Minister’s post, it became clear that not everything was well with the party. (Representational image)

The voters of Tripura, a state that barely makes it to the nation's headlines, are flocking to polling booths to decide the fate of the incumbent BJP government. It is a state with around 36 lakh people (Census 2011) and is India’s tenth smallest state by area. Nagaland has its natural beauty and fascinating, if often complicated, history; Meghalaya is almost always at the top of every tourist visiting the Northeast. And Tripura?

If ever there was a prize for India's “forgotten” state, it could be argued that Tripura would make for a strong contender. But at least for now, the state is getting the attention it deserves and rightly so. As someone who works in the Northeast, I can say that out of the three states heading to elections, Tripura is shaping into the most exciting contest.

Politics And Violence

And to think that many people had already declared the February 2023 elections as a dead rubber. Unlike other states, politics never takes a backseat in the state. Even when there is no election in sight, a majority of news coverage from Tripura focuses on two topics: political violence, and political leaders frothing at each other.

Political violence is a regular fixture in Tripura society. And it is the violence that often indicates which party is on the ascendancy, at least when elections are not in sight. In Tripura, the “mantle” of violence, so to speak, has rested, at least for the last five years, on the Communist Party of India (Marxist) CPI(M) and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). So, it was surprising to see "Congress" begin to appear in violence-related stories too.

And sure enough, in last year's bypolls, the grand old party made a comeback when veteran journeyman Sudip Roy Barman (ex-BJP-TMC-Congress and now Congress again) won from the Agartala-6 constituency. It would not be an exaggeration to say that sans Barman, Congress would not even be in the conversation for this election. Barring him, the GOP can boast of no leader that can appeal to the masses.

Tribal Churn

Meanwhile, TIPRA Motha, a party that was not even in the picture in 2018, is already being tipped to be the kingmaker, if not the king. In Pradyot Manikya Debbarman, they have the dream combination: a member of the royal family coupled with being somebody who never thinks twice before joining 'his' people on the streets, in protests, and providing them with a voice they never had.

Those who think Rahul Gandhi has connected with people during his Bharat Jodo Yatra, have not seen the Bubagra (Maharaja) campaigning. The ex-Congress leader has, according to many, galvanised the state's indigenous population to such an extent that TIPRA Motha stormed into power in the 2021 Tripura Tribal Areas Autonomous District Council elections, winning 19 of the 28 seats.

Pradyot knew bigger things were coming for his party. His demand for Greater Tipraland, a separate state for the indigenous population of Tripura, even prompted a meeting with Ministry of Home officials towards the end of January. But the MHA's response was not convincing enough for Pradyot to pledge his support to the BJP.

BJP Missing CM Biplab?

BJP had seemed unbeatable until a few months ago but is now fidgeting with potential permutations and combinations. The party has had its share of troubles like the other outfits in the fray. The frosty relationship with its tribal alliance partner, the Indigenous People's Front of Tripura, was best illustrated in the TTAADC elections. While TIPRA Motha won 19 of the 28, the IPFT drew a blank. To put it simply, the rise of TIPRA came at the cost of the IPFT.

Interestingly, and this is something that no political party has forgotten, the BJP won 9 seats of the 11 it contested in the tribal council elections. In 2018, the BJP won 10 of the 20 ST reserved seats (its ally the IPFT won 8). So even TIPRA Motha is never going to take the BJP lightly.

Under Biplab Deb, a person who is ideologically, politically and socially committed to the party, the BJP looked strong, almost undefeatable. But when he was removed from the Chief Minister’s post, it became clear that not everything was well with the party. After all, BJP does not change its top faces just like that.

To further complicate matters, he was replaced by an ex-Congress leader, Manik Saha, a doctor who, for the lack of a better word, lacks the X-factor that Deb has. Neither does Saha make claims like Deb, who, in 2018, claimed that the internet and satellite existed during the time of Mahabharata. Saha knows the BJP line well: Criticise the CPI(M) and communists as evildoers who only wish misery on people, call his ex-party Congress irrelevant, and maintain peace with TIPRA while trying to stump them in their own backyard.

Can CPI(M) Surprise?

In Saha, the CPI(M) sees a weakness. It also helps that despite losing to the BJP in 2018, the CPI(M) maintained its vote share: the party had a 42.22 per cent share in valid votes polled in the state. This is only 1.37 percentage points less than the BJP, which had a 43.59 per cent voteshare. 

But past vote share will not be of much help unless CPI(M) manages to get votes from those who wouldn't otherwise vote for them. And this is where the alliance with Congress can be of use. The GOP can help the CPI(M), at least in certain constituencies, increase its vote share by just enough to emerge on top. The CPI(M) has even nominated many young faces, including from former CM Manik Sarkar's constituency Dhanpur, a constituency that has remained a Left citadel for decades, in the hope that young blood will bolster the party in the Modi era.

The CPI(M) is the BJPs favourite enemy, but come March 2, it can very well turn into BJP's biggest nightmare too. But for that, CPI(M) would need the help of the GOP and the “blessings” of the Maharaja. The question is, will the Maharaja be in a position to bless?

Amit Kumar is executive editor of Eastmojo.com, a Northeast-based news portal. Views are personal and do not represent the stand of this publication.