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Rates, recession, war and markets: A Reappraisal  

Markets are real world forward looking discounting mechanisms and their flashing red behaviour may indeed be the canary in the mine, warning us of an impending economic slowdown

June 23, 2022 / 10:16 AM IST
Rates, recession, war and markets: A Reappraisal  

US Federal Reserve chief Jerome Powell

Four decades of “Great Moderation”, marked by soft interest rates and low inflation has come to an end in 2022. There are hardly any market professionals still active who were working in 1980, when the then Fed Chairman Paul Volcker delivered the “Volcker Shock”, raising US interest rates to 20% to break the back of persistently high inflation. In the first half of 2022, an estimated 80% of Central Banks globally have raised interest rates in an effort to combat...

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