Opinion | Tamil Nadu politics: AIADMK's continuing decline and BJP's growing ambitions

Tamil Nadu Deputy Chief Minister O Panneerselvam

At the moment, the spotlight in Tamil Nadu is on DMK patriarch and former chief minister M Karunanidhi's fluctuating health. The 94-year-old veteran has been a strong presence in Tamil politics for more than six decades, but has seen his health fail in recent years. His absence from active politics and the uncertainties it brings to Dravidian politics has put the state on tenterhooks.

A different — but equally important — political uncertainty unfolding in the southern state is the terminal decline of the ruling All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK). Recent events in Tamil Nadu and in Delhi clearly highlight the AIADMK's downward slide and the BJP's increasing ambition in the state.

This uncertainty is reflected in the way the AIADMK now functions and how its leaders are treated. Tamil Nadu Deputy Chief Minister O Panneerselvam's (OPS') recent Delhi trip is the latest example of this trend.

On July 24, OPS arrived in Delhi to convey his "heartfelt gratitude" to Defence Minister Nirmala Sitaraman for arranging a military helicopter to take his ailing brother from Madurai to Chennai. However, she refused to meet the deputy CM, saying he did not have an appointment. OPS then returned to Chennai and when asked by the press about it, he quoted former Tamil Nadu CM Annadurai as saying, "Yedhaiyum thaangum idhayam vaendum." (One must have a heart that can withstand anything).

There are many layers to the AIADMK leader’s snub, and the most prominent one is that a deputy CM (who is also a former CM), and that too the leader of a party that is a NDA ally, returned empty-handed from Delhi. What makes OPS’ Delhi visit interesting is that he is perceived to be close to the BJP, especially Prime Minister Narendra Modi. OPS credited Modi for his and Edappadi K Palanisami (EPS) coming together to form the government.

Related stories

Viju Cherian

Opinion Editor|moneycontrol.com

• 
  Gujarat shows an invincible BJP, Himachal Pradesh exposes chinks in its armour
• 
  Tharoor Vs Kharge | Congress’ intra-party democracy withers on the vine
• 
  By visiting Taiwan, Nancy Pelosi has called China’s bluff

The AIADMK's downward slide began with the demise of former chief minister J Jayalalithaa on December 5, 2016. That summer, the party had returned to power by breaking a three-decade-long anti-incumbency trend with a strong majority, and in the 2014 general elections, the AIADMK had won 37 of the 39 seats in the state.

From that position of power, after a three-way split and its leaders being jailed, today the AIADMK government faces the threat of being reduced to a minority government. Though two of the factions — the one led by OPS and the other by EPS — have merged to run the current government, there is tension between the two leaders. If the recent income tax raids in Tamil Nadu were targeted at people close to EPS, the state government on July 25 (a day after OPS' Delhi trip) informed the Madras High Court that a disproportionate assets case against OPS was being probed. Add to this the fact that both EPS and OPS do not have the goodwill or command the respect of all leaders within the party and the cadre, and it's clear that the AIADMK is in a shambles and its government is living on borrowed time.

This has got other parties ambitious. Sensing an opportunity, actors Rajinikanth and Kamal Haasan have made entries into politics. The DMK, under MK Stalin, is confident of returning to power, but the uncertainty and vacuum created by the AIADMK is cause for concern.

However, it is the BJP that sees the biggest opportunity in the southern state. The party has one Lok Sabha MP at the moment, but if it can muster support in regions where the party and the RSS are strong, it has an outside chance of winning up to four seats in the upcoming general elections. While that in itself may not upset the apple cart, it will give the party the confidence to face the state's next elections, due in 2021. Welcoming leaders from other parties and forming a strong alliance will also help boost the BJP's confidence.

It might be its association with the film industry that gives Tamil Nadu politics that extra element of drama. At the moment, the dramatic personae is OPS, who proved to be the showstopper in February 2017 when he refused to vacate the CM's post and paid a late night visit to Jayalalithaa's memorial. Can we expect him to repeat it once more?