Odisha: Cosy BJD-BJP ties come into focus ahead of simultaneous Lok Sabha-assembly elections

The BJD and BJP have followed a ‘friends in Delhi, enemies in Bhubaneswar’ policy.

The two estranged partners (recall that the BJD and BJP were in an alliance a long time ago, before a parting of ways in 2009) could not have found a more appropriate day to reaffirm what has been a clandestine, post-divorce affair: Valentine’s Day. Even as Union Railways, Communications & IT minister Ashwini Vaishnaw was airborne en route to Bhubaneswar on Wednesday morning, the BJP announced his name as its candidate for Rajya Sabha from Odisha, the state he represented in the Upper House in his last term too. And before he landed at the Biju Patnaik International airport in Bhubaneswar, the ruling BJD had announced its support for his candidature, just as it had done last time.

Speculation about such a possibility had begun on Monday when the BJD announced its candidates for two of the three RS seats from the state for which elections are to be held – three-time MLA Debashish Samantaray and Subhashish Khuntia, vice president of the party’s youth wing – but stopped short of naming a third candidate for which it had the numbers in the state Assembly. The events of Wednesday morning proved that the speculation had a sound basis.

BJD’s ‘Interests of Odisha’ Argument

To be fair to the BJD, the ‘interests of Odisha’ argument offered by the party as justification for its support to Vaishnaw is not entirely without merit. The Railways sector in the state has indeed seen considerable development in the time since he became the minister.

Railway allocation to Odisha, which never crossed Rs 1, 000 crore during the entire 10-year UPA rule, has breached the Rs 10,000 crore mark for two successive years now. Work on several long-delayed railway projects, including the crucial Khurda-Bolangir railway line, touted as a trade and cultural bridge between the western and coastal parts of the state, appears to be finally gathering some momentum.

The telecom sector too has witnessed some rapid progress, including the 5G roll-out. But there are few takers in the state for the BJD’s efforts to sell its support as an issue of Odisha’s interests. For the average Odia, this was just the latest – and most conclusive – evidence of what the Congress had evocatively termed the ‘live-in relationship’ between the BJD and BJP. The opposition party even organised a mock marriage ceremony between the two on the streets of Bhubaneswar a few weeks ago.

Informal Alliance?

Interestingly, it is the BJD which is having to do all the explaining while the BJP is exuding an air of utter nonchalance. When asked about it moments after both sides had revealed their cards, state BJP president Manmohan Samal said; “We did not go asking for support. Ask the BJD why it supported our candidate.” Caught on the wrong foot, the BJD decided to abstain – unlike the last time - when Vaishnaw’s filed his nomination papers the next day (Thursday).

Coming as it does barely weeks before the simultaneous parliamentary and assembly elections in the state, the deal on Vaishnaw suggests that it’s not a one-off event but is part of a larger understanding for the coming polls between the two former alliance partners.

The first significant indication of this ‘informal alliance’ had already come on February 3 when Prime Minister Narendra Modi, during his visit to Sambalpur, had refused to utter a word against Naveen, his government or his party in his public address. Earlier the same day, he had shared the dais with Patnaik at the inauguration of the permanent campus of IIM in Sambalpur and even fondly addressed him as his ‘mitra’ (friend).

BJP’s 2019 Lok Sabha Success, Assembly Failure 

The BJD and BJP have followed a ‘friends in Delhi, enemies in Bhubaneswar’ policy, supporting each other on numerous occasions since the 2019 elections while maintaining a charade of fighting each other in the state. In fact, it would be no exaggeration to say the BJD has been the most trusted and steadfast ally of the BJP.

Both sides gain in this one-of-its-kind arrangement worked out between the top leadership of the two parties. While the BJD gets complete immunity from central agencies like the CBI, ED & IT – and generous central grants for the state – BJP gets the support of BJD in getting crucial Bills passed in the Parliament – the Rajya Sabha, in particular, where it doesn’t have the numbers yet.

At the hustings, this arrangement is expected to translate into a sizable number of Lok Sabha seats for the BJP while the BJD continues to rule the roost in the state elections. The numbers suggest such an arrangement was in place even in the last elections.

While the BJP walked away with as many as eight of the 21 seats in the state, it could manage just 23 seats in the 147-member Assembly. Significantly, the party won two Lok Sabha seats – Puri and Bhubaneswar – but could not win a single assembly seat coming under these two parliamentary constituencies.

Helping Each Other’s Ambitions

By all indications, the BJP is aiming higher this time to achieve its ‘Abki Baar 400 Paar’ dream. Already, opinion polls by two leading national TV channels – Times Now and India Today – have predicted that the saffron party would increase its tally from the state this time. While Times Now gives the BJP 11 seats and the BJD 9 (Congress 1), India Today gives 10 seats to BJP and 11 to BJD.

Naveen Patnaik has always maintained that he has no ‘national ambitions’ and is happy to ‘serve the 4.5 crore Odias’. So, letting go of a few Parliament seats in exchange for unfettered reign over the state makes eminent political sense for him.

The bonhomie between the BJD and BJP has presented the Congress an issue on a platter to go to the public with. But with its organisation in shambles and leaders leaving the party in droves, it is in no position to mount a real challenge to the ‘frenemies’. Odisha, thus, looks destined to be ruled by two partners in a ‘live-in relationship’ who refuse to tie the nuptials!

Sandeep Sahu is a senior Bhubaneswar-based journalist and columnist, who has authored a biography of President Droupadi Murmu published by Penguin India. Views are personal, and do not represent the stand of this publication.