Moneycontrol Pro Panorama | Economic recovery remains anything but smooth

Our Economic Recovery Tracker’s update shows four out of the six weekly indicators we track slipping into the red. Power consumption has gone down for the second week in a row and indicators for unemployment and vehicle sales too have slipped. To be fair, there is some volatility in these high frequency indicators on a week to week basis. But what it shows is that the recovery from the second wave is not going to be a straight upward line.

More clarity will come when the PMI data for July is announced, giving a better picture of how the industrial and service sectors are performing and their outlook. The main risk for the economy remains a surge in COVID-19 cases. They seem to have settled in a range and not going lower. Even the pace of vaccination has not picked up steam.

The second wave’s effect on business and consumers is showing up in the banking sector. The June quarter results of banks are showing some stress on their retail portfolio, a sign of the financial stress caused by the pandemic’s effect on the economy, particularly on small businesses and jobs. This is visible in the results of Axis Bank and Kotak Mahindra Bank. Does the strain on asset quality affect the investment case for these banks? Read our research team’s analysis to know more.

While these may be broad macro concerns investors may have one eye on, their appetite for new equity paper seems undiminished. The Glenmark Life Sciences IPO was fully subscribed to on the first day of the issue. That is good news for the long list of IPO wannabes lining up to hit the market. You can read our research team’s take on the Glenmark IPO in today’s edition.

One way of strengthening a business against these uncertain times is to improve its sustainability quotient. Do read today’s The Green Pivot on how cement companies’ energy-saving efforts are not only good for the environment but for their profits as well.

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Ravi Ananthanarayanan

Moneycontrol Pro