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Mohamed El-Erian writes: It is too early to declare risk of US recession is over

Rate rises and contraction of the Fed’s balance sheet may still pull the rug from under the economy and markets

©The Financial Times Limited 2020 Aug 9, 2022 / 12:40 PM IST
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Mohamed El-Erian writes: It is too early to declare risk of US recession is over

Forward indicators suggest that the current strength of the labour market should not be taken for granted. (Representative image)

Mohamed El-Erian There are times when one wants to be wrong. I have felt this way several times in the past 15 months, whether in warning last year that inflation would not prove transitory or cautioning that the Federal Reserve was rapidly falling way behind on its inflation objective and running out of first-best (“soft landing”) policy options. Today, my discomfort relates to the view that the recent jobs report implies that the US will now avoid a recession, a view...

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