Indus Waters Treaty: No immediate impact, but Pakistan will hurt later from data paucity

Saying anything on IWT’s future is premature and cannot be predicted as reading Modi’s mind and next step is not possible.

By Sant Kumar Sharma

The blame game between India and Pakistan has just about started as the two eternal rivals (often enemies) seem to be just getting warmed up. On Thursday, Pakistan’s Power Minister Sardar Awais Leghari said India suspending the water treaty “in haste and without regard for its consequences amounts to water warfare”. According to a statement issued by the Ministry of Power Division, he said: “India’s reckless suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty is an act of water warfare; a cowardly, illegal move. Every drop is ours by right and we will defend it with full force — legally, politically and globally”.

That is a lot of hot air being let out with barely any meaning as not a drop from the Western Rivers of the Chenab, the Jhelum or the Indus, the rivers allotted to Pakistan under the IWT, is being claimed by India. Not at least at this point of time. Under Prime Minister Narendra Modi, India has just decided to keep the Treaty in abeyance and take what can be termed as first step in a long, but not boring game of chess in geopolitics. Incidentally, abeyance means just a pause, something pregnant with immense possibilities. Right now, saying anything on IWT’s future is premature and cannot be predicted as reading Modi’s mind and next step is not possible.

These possibilities opening up with India’s announcement is what worries Pakistan no end as all possible scenarios that can play up in days, weeks, months and years ahead cannot be predicted, foreseen or war gamed. The very first impact it has had is Pakistan Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif conceding defeat before Bilawal Zardari Bhutto on Thursday and announcing stoppage of all work on six new canals on Indus. This is a stinging slap for Pakistan Army Chief General Asim Munir who had inaugurated this project along with Punjab Chief Minister Maryam Nawaz on February 15.

Pakistan’s claims of illegality

Be it Sherry Rehman of the Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) or someone like Deputy Prime Minister Ishaq Dar of Pakistan Muslim League-N, their argument against the Indian action makes interesting reading. Both of them, and some other prominent Pakistani leaders, have said that the IWT has no provision for "unilateral suspension’’. On this basis, all of them have termed India’s action with regard to the Treaty as illegal and lacking the force of law.

Point taken? True that? For the sake of argument, let us for a moment accept that in all the 12 Articles and appendices, the Treaty doesn’t have a provision for unilateral suspension. If we take that argument put forth by Pakistan, let us also talk of what is there in the Treaty. According to Article XII, called Final Provisions, the Treaty can be modified from ``time to time’’. This Article XII was invoked by India, for the first time ever, on January 25, 2023, and Pakistan did not respond adequately. It refused to start fresh negotiations for modification of the Treaty, under its provision. Even when India had asked Pakistan to do so.

Now what does one call the stance adopted by Pakistan which effectively means nullifying Article XII of the Treaty?  It has been done by Pakistan twice already as it refused to start negotiations on even second notice served by India under Article XII on August 30, 2024.

Is refusal to adhere to Article XII of the Treaty an adherence to its essence? Or is it a contradiction of the spirit of Treaty. Let readers decide after weighing the facts.

We reproduce herein Article XII, Final Provisions, verbatim for better understanding since this article comprises barely 130 words. Read it hereunder.

Article XII, Final Provisions

1. This Treaty consists of the Preamble, the Articles hereof and Annexures A to H hereto, and may be cited as "The Indus Waters Treaty 1960".

2. This Treaty shall be ratified and the ratifications thereof shall be exchanged in New Delhi. It shall enter into force upon the exchange, of ratifications, and will then take effect retrospectively from the first of April 1960.

3. The provisions of this Treaty may from time to time be modified by a duly ratified treaty concluded for that purpose between the two Governments.

4. The provisions of this Treaty, or, the provisions of this Treaty as modified under the provisions of Paragraph (3), shall continue in force until terminated by a duly ratified treaty concluded for that purpose between the two Governments.

Immediate Impact on Pakistan

Well, if truth be told, there is not much that will change on ground in a week or a month. Keeping the Treaty in abeyance will not stop any water from flowing to lower riparian Pakistan. Leave aside the waters from the Western Rivers, even the water from Ravi which goes into Pakistan, and which is India’s share under the Treaty, will continue to flow unhindered. For rivers are not taps in our kitchens, or bathrooms, where turning off a knob can lead to flow of water stopping. Rivers exist on their own and can be tamed, only by spending months and years, of hard human labour, coupled with vast amounts of money poured in, into building engineering structures.

This taming can then lead to diversions of river flows (partial or entire), as chosen, to entirely new areas. For now, India has not announced any such plans, new plans that is, either for the Eastern Rivers, or the Western Rivers. Former Pakistan High Commissioner to India Abdul Basit is absolutely right when he says that 133 million acre feet (MAF) of water flows in the Western Rivers will continue to flow into Pakistan as before. Yes, on that count, Pakistan can rest assured that nothing is happening today, tomorrow, or in the weeks, months and years ahead.

What can happen is not the total flow quantities being impaired but small tweaks in the letters of the Treaty. Stoppage of annual meetings of Permanent Indus Commission (PIC) comprising Indus Commissioners of the two sides, stoppage of all data regarding river flows and other such steps are now likely, starting immediately. This may not impact Pakistan just now but during rainy season three months later, and lean water flow seasons during winters, some six months later, the impact of absence of data can be felt acutely by Pakistan.

(Sant Kumar Sharma is a senior journalist.)

Views are personal, and do not represent the stance of this publication.