Bihar Elections | 77 and 52 are magic numbers this election

A key number in the Bihar assembly polls is 77 — the number of constituencies, from a total of 243 assembly seats, on which the 69-year-old Nitish Kumar-led Janata Dal (United) is in direct contest with 31-year-old Tejashwi Yadav-led Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD).

As anti-incumbency becomes a significant factor in the Bihar assembly polls, with Chief Minister Nitish Kumar and this JD(U) becoming the target of the anger at his government’s insensitive handling of the migrants’ crisis, the shape of the next assembly is likely to be decided on these 77-seats.

The mention of the respective ages of Kumar and Yadav leads one to the next key number in the Bihar polls — 52. It is a number that Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who turned 70 in September, would have his eyes on when he lands in Bihar on October 23 to address the first three of his 12 public meetings.

The Youth Matter

Fifty-two percent of the 72.9 million electorate of Bihar is under the age of 35, one of the highest in India.

Tejashwi Yadav, who is drawing big crowds of young men, has unnerved the ruling National Democratic Alliance (NDA) — which comprises the JD(U) and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) — with the promise of providing 1 million jobs, including filling more than 450,000 existing government vacancies.

A quarter of the 52 percent youth is in the age group of 18 to 25. In their election speeches, NDA leaders repeatedly bring up the prospect of a return of the “jungle raj” if people were to vote for the RJD. However, this section of the youth has little memory of the chief ministerial tenures of Tejashwi Yadav’s parents — Lalu Prasad and Rabri Devi — which lasted until the end of 2004.

The youth are upset at having to return to their native state to find little work, not even the MNREGA work, and could vent this anger through the ballot box. The election commission has enrolled 6.7 million new voters this time — most being migrants.

Nitish Kumar’s Image

During the initial days of the campaign, a section of the BJP leadership tried at focusing much of the anti-incumbency on Kumar and his JD(U). It, however, discovered that the heat from this subterranean campaign is set to singe it as well. Kumar might sink, but he could take the BJP with him. To repair the damage done, Narendra Modi will share the stage with Kumar.

That Yadav has left Kumar and BJP leaders rattled is evident from their recent statements. A video of a public meeting addressed by Kumar has surfaced where the Chief Minister loses his cool at a person who took to chanting, ‘Lalu Prasad zindabad’, or long live Lalu Prasad.

Yadav has also set the agenda with the promise of jobs. Kumar and BJP leadership, busy punching holes in his claim until October 21, finally had to respond to it with the BJP promising 1.9 million jobs in its manifesto released on October 22.

Modi Magic Again?

As Kumar’s popularity declines and Yadav’s increases, the NDA’s hopes now rest on the Modi blitz as he is immensely popular in the state. Incidentally, Modi’s magic, unchallenged at the national level, has had diminishing returns in the last 17 assembly polls.

With the exception of Arunachal Pradesh in 2019, the BJP has not secured a simple majority in even a single state in the last 17 assembly polls since its win in Tripura in February 2018. It lost Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand and even Maharashtra; regained control of Karnataka and Madhya Pradesh through the backdoor; and entered in an alliance in Haryana.

Opinion polls predict an NDA win in Bihar, but there is nearly a week still to go for the first phase of polling. The result may even be so fractured as to merit a repeat of 2005, when Bihar witnessed two assembly polls.

The Caste Equations

An ironic feature of the current elections is that the RJD, long criticised for its caste politics, and its allies, the Congress and Left parties, hope people would vote for their ‘Grand Alliance’ cutting across castes. Yadav has shown ‘large heartedness’ in leaving 70 seats for the Congress to contest and 29 for the Left parties. His attempt is to go beyond the RJD’s Muslim-Yadav support base.

The large number of seats for the Congress is a signal to the upper castes, which in Bihar votes BJP that they will have a respectable share in Yadav’s government. The Congress has fielded 33, nearly half of its 70, upper caste candidates. Similarly, the big share to the Left parties signals a broad unity of the poor, the section that has suffered during the lockdown, and also to the CPI(ML)’s support base among Mahadalits.

The NDA’s hopes rest on its support base among upper castes, extremely backward castes (EBCs) and Mahadalits. On paper, the NDA, which now also includes Mahadalit leader Jitan Ram Manjhi’s Hindustani Awam Morcha and Mukesh Sahni’s Vikassheel Insaan Party, with influence among Nishads, is far stronger.

The polling, to be held under the shadow of COVID-19, is likely to see a low voter turnout. This could lead to slim win-loss margins, where the role of independents and smaller parties, including the Lok Janshakti Party, AIMIM and others, come into play. In 2015, 60 seats were decided on a margin of less than 8,000 votes.

An election that had seemed done and dusted a few weeks back is now interestingly poised.

Archis Mohan is senior journalist. Views are personal.