Army set to manoeuvre a process of generational change in Pakistan politics

Turmoil in Pakistan politics.

Beneath the sound and fury triggered by the violent arrest of former Prime Minister Imran Khan Niazi are the birth pangs of a new, younger generation of future Pakistani top leadership. Caught up in the immediate developments surrounding the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) leader, the variables around a new political generation have been mostly overlooked. 

Pakistan is unlikely to implode even though it may continue to teeter on the edge of an abyss for some time to come. More than anyone inside Pakistan, the international community will not allow a nuclear-armed state to fall to pieces. The situation is very different from Afghanistan, where, the world stood by as regimes changed and reincarnated. Pakistan’s Army, although no longer firmly united, as reported in this space on April 21, will ultimately paper over differences: it has the most the lose if anarchy takes over the country. Besides its Army is the only stable institution left in Pakistan. History is replete with instances, big and small, where an Army which believes that it is the only glue left for a country, comes together as a last resort to save it from going under. Egypt is the most recent example among big countries. Fiji is the best example of a small nation of this genre.  

Unholy Alliance

The Army and the “establishment” political forces represented in the Shehbaz Sharif government are in an unholy alliance born of necessity to protect one another’s interests as the people threaten to take power in a Pakistani version of the Arab Spring. When there is turmoil, institutions which are otherwise largely peripheral to the “big picture” seek their short-lived fame. That is now the case with Pakistan’s judiciary, which has visions of self-glorification, reminiscent of the sunset period of Pervez Musharraf’s presidency. Two years after Musharraf dismissed Supreme Court Chief Justice Iftikhar Mohammed Chaudhry in November 2007 and house-arrested his fellow Justices, the General-turned-President admitted that it was the mistake which led to his downfall. The incumbent Chief Justice, Umar Ata Bandial, appears to believe that he can be the arbiter in the ongoing political logjam in Islamabad, but he is mistaken. The entire judiciary led by Chaudhury was united in its opposition to Musharraf, but the ranks of Pakistan’s present-day judiciary are already showing cracks within. Imran cannot count on it in the long run, especially since Bandial has only four months left of his term as Chief Justice.

What creates a dilemma for the coalition of the Army and establishment politicians in dealing with Imran is that everything is not in black and white unlike previous civilian-military confrontations in Pakistan. Many of Imran’s advisers – not just at the top, but down the PTI chain of command – are retired Army officers. Many of them are battle-hardened in Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and have lost colleagues and friends in the protracted conflicts there involving terrorists, fanatical sub-nationalists and secessionists on the one side, and men in uniform on the other. Imran is Pashtun himself. That creates a predicament within the Army General Headquarters in Rawalpindi, where most previous Chiefs and subordinate Chiefs have been creatures of comfort, groomed mainly in Punjab or mohajirs. Imran simply cannot be wished away the way Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto and his daughter were done away with or the ease with which the Sharifs were repeatedly co-opted or coerced.  

Engineering A Change

The most likely scenario in Pakistan once Imran’s bail period is over and yet another confrontation passes, is that a call will have to be taken on whether to hold national elections this year or later in 2024. Pakistanis are used to postponement of polls or no polls at all. So that is no big deal. A fragile peace with sham democracy in the short run will gradually lead to more durable law and order. The Army will claw its way back to being the puppeteer in national affairs, from behind the scenes. Yet, that can see Pakistan through only in the medium term.  

After the Army has consolidated its position after the shocking and unprecedented May 9 attacks on defence establishments and properties – in the heartland – it will gradually set in motion a process of generational change in the country’s politics. Bilawal Bhutto has shown that he is the chip off the old block on both his maternal and paternal sides. In the short time that Bilawal has been Foreign Minister in the present government, he has shown that he has the potential to be Pakistan’s future leader. Maryam Nawaz Sharif has fulfilled all the mandatory requirements to be Bilawal’s foil and rival leader in future: bouts of imprisonment, political persecution orchestrated by the Army, including disqualification from election contests and subsequent exoneration. Bilawal and Maryam are both young by the standards of top political leadership in South Asia. Maryam is 49, Bilawal is younger at 34. In their own ways, both future leaders have demonstrated charisma, popular appeal and the potential to grow.  

The Army’s best bet is to groom them for positions of power once the dust settles on developments in the months since Imran’s loss of prime ministerial office. New faces and young blood always come with promise and renew hopes among the people. Between Maryam and Bilawal, one or the other – most likely one after the other – will eventually step into their fathers’ shoes. From behind the scenes the Army will engage in its familiar game of playing one against the other as it has done with their respective parents. Next time, the Army will revise its playbook to ensure that there are no interlopers in Pakistan’s politics like Imran. The more things change in Pakistan, the more they remain the same. 

KP Nayar has extensively covered West Asia and reported from Washington as a foreign correspondent for 15 years. Views are personal, and do not represent the stand of this publication.