AAP propels BJP to record highs in Gujarat Elections 2022

BJP set to win a record 157 seats in Gujarat while AAP significantly dented Congress' vote share.

In its debut elections in Gujarat, the Aam Aadmi Party has made a phenomenal impact despite its single digit tally.

Its impact can be gauged from the fact that the Congress is practically decimated with BJP set to win a record 157 seats and vote share of more than 50 percent.

AAP has significantly dented the vote share of Congress (down from 41 percent to 26 percent vote share) and appealed to a section of voters upset with the 27 year old rule of the BJP. In Modi-Shah land, AAP has been able to build a party from scratch and emerge as runner-up in 30 odd seats. It also acquired a national party status in the process.

With two state governments and one municipal corporation under its belt, AAP today is clearly the number three party in the country after BJP and the Congress, ahead of all other regional parties. Strategically it is targeting states where the BJP and Congress are locked in a direct contest, and where there is not a lot of clutter to take advantage of a vulnerable grand old party.

AAP started its campaign early raising local issues and showcasing its Delhi-Punjab governance model to the voters of Gujarat. It benefitted from factionalism in the Congress. It had a first mover advantage as it had already raised most of the issues which the Congress party had promised in its aath vachan.

While AAP attempted to expose the famed Gujarat model of the BJP, at the ground level it targeted the core vote block of the Congress through its high decibel campaign.

The party has performed well in Saurashtra and rural seats, though not as expected in Surat.

A section of the Patidar community which had backed the Congress in 2017, seems to have swung towards AAP. If we go by the Axis My India exit poll figures, apart from the Patels, AAP has been able to attract SC–ST and minority votes through its attractive promises. While the SC community was attracted by freebies, ST community was impacted by the promise of implementation of PESA (Panchayats Extension to Scheduled Areas Act, 1996).

Through its creative digital campaign AAP has been able to draw a section of the youth from the 18-35 years age bracket. Unemployment allowance and ‘Ek Mauka AAP Ko’ resonated with the youth. Some Muslim youth backed AAP as they felt that Congress is now unable to challenge BJP in Gujarat, say the findings of Axis My India exit poll.

Moreover, AAP experimented with targeting different socio-economic strata and castes. It also targeted the urban poor through its freebies and track record of the Delhi-Punjab model. It promised ease in GST and VAT refunds to attract small traders and free power to farmers.

AAP clearly damaged the Congress more than the BJP. The Congress and its allies had won 79 seats in 2017; of these, 33 seats were won with less than a five percent vote margin. Most of these seats have now fallen into the lap of BJP.

AAP’s main plank was that Vote for Congress is actually vote for BJP as Congress MLAs will go to BJP after the elections. This is a fact and not mere rhetoric as the Congress has seen an exodus of MLAs in the last 15 years to BJP. Kejriwal continuously called out that the Congress cannot fight with BJP and it was finished with no meaty counter from the grand old party.

“One Chance to AAP” also seems have had some impact on the typical Gujarati mindset which loves to try everything new. Unemployment and inflation were two issues that people felt BJP was unable to control. Around these issues, AAP attempted to emerge as a more credible alternative than the Congress.

Gujarat still sees Rahul Gandhi and Sonia Gandhi as the key Congress leaders and they did not visit the state except two rallies by the former. Kejriwal came to Gujarat every month in the run-up to the polls, announced new ‘guarantees’ every time, conducted Town Halls and so on. In doing so, AAP ensured that the election became Modi vs Kejriwal in absence of a CM face from the Congress.

AAP now needs to strengthen its organisation in the state, ensure MLAs remain loyal to the party and raise people’s issues better than the Congress.  While AAP comes as a fresh alternative to the Congress in Gujarat, it will need to decentralise power, else it could see troubles like in Punjab. The party also needs to develop bench strength if it wishes to displace the Congress as the main opposition party and even become contender to win the 2027 Gujarat elections.