Considering input price inflation across various sectors, RBI in the April policy meeting will increase inflation forecast and will marginally cut growth estimates for economy,
The transition from panic to recovery is expected to be volatile, implying that the first quarter of FY27 may still see turbulent sideways consolidation before a sustained rally, said Waterfield's Vipul Bhowar.
On the domestic side, the key risk would be any delay in earnings normalisation in sectors where expectations have run ahead of delivery, as well as pockets of elevated valuations, said Pradeep Gupta of Anand Rathi.
Ashish Kyal believes the low of 22,180 is going to be crucial for Nifty 50 because, if one looks at the weekly timeframe chart, this is the same level that was seen during May 2024. A very important base formation also happened in this zone in March 2025.
If tensions persist in May 2026, the impact begins to transmit into macro variables. Elevated oil prices start reflecting in inflation expectations, currency pressures remain, and financial conditions tighten, said Puneet Sharma of Whitespace Alpha.
The 22,900-23,000 zone remains a key resistance band for the Nifty 50 next week, however, a decisive break below 22,350 would indicate a continuation of the downtrend, potentially dragging the index towards 22,200 and even 22,000, making this a crucial make-or-break zone in the near term, said Sudeep Shah of SBI Securities.
As per the latest round of rhetoric, it appears the war could extend further, and the resolution is unlikely in the immediate term, said Client Associates' Himanshu Kohli.
A large part of India’s quality universe is domestic consumer-facing, and if the monsoon remains favourable this year, we expect a meaningful demand revival across several of these businesses, said Narnolia's Shailendra Kumar.
Sanjay Doshi remains enthused by opportunities in renewable and non-fossil-based segments along with equipment suppliers for grid expansion and upgrades.
Unless the index gets a bullish candlestick with immediate follow-through, the trend, for now, is down and the April 2025 low has a high likelihood of being tested, Akshay Chinchalkar said.
FIIs have pulled out over Rs 3.17 lakh crore from Indian equities in FY26 already. Domestic sentiment may hold up for a bit on SIP flows and retail enthusiasm, but a genuine, broad-based upmove? That requires clarity on Hormuz. Until then, any rally will be a bear market bounce, not the start of a new leg, said Divam Sharma.
While the Nifty trades at around 17x 12-month forward EPS, the risk of EPS downgrades has increased; hence, valuations remain expensive despite the correction, said Jitendra Gohil.
No resolution to West Asia crisis can lead to earnings downgrade which eventually will remove the cushion on valuations which was created due to fall in stock prices, said Siddarth Bhamre.
Given the current price structure and prevailing trend, Sudeep Shah continues to recommend a “sell on rise” strategy, as any short term pullbacks are likely to remain corrective in nature rather than mark the beginning of a sustainable trend reversal.
Post-war rebuilding in the Middle East can unlock significant infrastructure opportunities, particularly through large-scale government-led reconstruction, said TCG AMC's Shahzad Madon.
With continuous absorption from DIIs and domestic flows, Robin Arya does not see a classic “crash” or a full-blown panic playing out at the index level.
Oil can certainly spike on supply fears, but unless there is a prolonged and meaningful disruption to physical supplies, prices may not sustain at levels that derail global growth, Gaurav Didwania of Qode Advisors said.
If the Nifty 50 consolidates, Milan Vaishnav expects the 23,000 level to stay defended.
From a longer-term perspective, a nearly two-year price correction and a sharp fall of around 15 percent in recent weeks have increased the attractiveness of Indian equities, said OmniScience's Ashwini Shami. According to him, the current Middle East crisis is expected to have a limited impact on the long-term earnings potential of Indian listed companies, as most of them are focused on the domestic economy.
Edelweiss MF's base case still assumes oil moderates if conflict de-escalates. Strategic stock releases by the International Energy Agency and temporary sanctions flexibility on Iranian cargoes are already acting as stabilizers, said Trideep Bhattacharya.
In the near term, risk-off sentiment can persist simply because visibility is low. Markets are still trying to assess whether this is a contained disruption or something more prolonged, said Marcellus' Arindam Mandal.
On the charts, Nifty faces strong resistance at 23,345–23,380, and until this zone is decisively breached alongside improvement in FII positioning, the broader undertone is likely to remain cautious with a sell-on-rise approach, said Sudeep Shah.
Overall, RBI MPC's stance is likely to be ‘pause with readiness to act’, rather than any immediate shift towards easing, said ALF Accurate's Rajesh Kothari.
Markets are clearly in an uncertain frame given the breakout of hostilities in Iran. What is most critical from an India point of view is the “new normal” for crude, said Jitendra Sriram of Baroda BNP Paribas Mutual Fund.
The current Middle East crisis, if it persists over the next 3-4 months, will create a multi-year buying opportunity, said Mavenark's Phanisekhar Ponangi.