The volatility index serves as a crucial indicator of market stability, and a higher volatility in equity markets clearly indicates instability at the present juncture. The war in Middle East has been very tricky as it continues to escalate, said Naveen Kulkarni of Axis Securities PMS.
Given the current chart structure and weak momentum setup, any near term rebound, if it occurs, is likely to attract fresh selling interest, especially near resistance zones, said Sudeep Shah of SBI Securities.
Strait of Hormuz blockage might not last beyond month of March 2026 as blockage impact almost every Asian country and extended blockage might warrant a direct military participation from multiple players, said Karan Aggarwal.
With multiple commodities moving together right now, the cumulative inflation impulse could be larger than the headline crude number alone implies, said LGT's Chakri Lokapriya.
Sustained high oil prices not only fuels inflation but pressures the rupee, bond yields, and equity sentiment. Markets hate uncertainty; volatility rises as investors recalibrate risks in response to events, said Nilesh Shah of Kotak Mahindra AMC.
Nimesh Chandan remains positive on domestic-oriented sectors, as they are better insulated from global uncertainties.
The resolution of the Hormuz issue will definitely be a positive signal for the markets. But without resolution of the ongoing war it does not signal full market optimism, said Vikas Gupta.
According to Rahul Ghose, a close below 24,300 would turn this market into a sell on rallies, from buy on dips from a trading perspective. Only a substantial visible improvement in the geopolitical situation would change this outlook.
FY27 presents a clearer runway for earnings improvement with valuations no longer stretched and interest rates easing, the earnings cycle appears poised for gradual acceleration This year should be better than last calendar year gone by, said Carnelian’s Swati Khemani.
LNG price spikes also merit attention — city gas distribution companies and fertiliser manufacturers with spot LNG exposure could see meaningful input cost pressure if the disruption persists into Q4, said Valtrust's Rahul Bhutoria.
Considering the current chart structure and overall market setup, Sudeep Shah of SBI Securities continues to recommend a sell on rally approach.
Though overall expectations are continued improvement in earnings growth across sectors in Q4FY26, key thing is to be watched out is the impact both direct and indirect due to the War, said Spark's Deepan Kapadia.
The current crisis will provide a tactical window to build exposure in quality counters with secular earnings predictability and margin of safety. One must take a constructive view from here on Indian equities, said Pradeep Gupta, Executive Director and Head of Investments – India at Lighthouse Canton
Bhautik Ambani of Alpha Grep says this is no longer routine geopolitical noise. It’s a serious escalation, and for India the issue is very simple — oil.
Geopolitical conflicts tend to evolve in unexpected ways, particularly when multiple stakeholders are involved and strategic interests overlap, said Rohit Sarin of Client Associates.
In the current environment, Ashish Kyal advised clients to remain cautious and avoid aggressive participation in derivatives, given the event-driven volatility.
The key monitorable remains crude. If oil stabilizes, broader markets should absorb the geopolitical noise relatively quickly, said Divam Sharma.
Sudeep Shah recommends deploying a bear spread strategy by buying 25,150 Put and Selling 25,000 Put, as Nifty is likely to retest the 25,000–24,950 zone in the near term.
A further 5% correction cannot be ruled out if crude prices spike sharply or if global risk appetite weakens. Equity markets tend to react quickly to geopolitical uncertainty, especially when oil volatility influences inflation and currency movements simultaneously, said INVasset PMS' Anirudh Garg.
The current environment is admittedly clouded by uncertainty — the US-Iran conflict and the ongoing debate around AI's economic impact are creating visible headwinds for market sentiment, said Narnolia's Shailendra Kumar.
FII flows will be vulnerable to these developments like geopolitical tensions, which means EMs markets could see further pressure in short term, said Ankur Jhaveri of JM Financial.
There can be delays in private capex as capex expansion depends on many factors such as demand uncertainty due to tariffs, and raw materials prices fluctuations, said Alpha Capital’s Pankaj Kumar.
Bay Capital's Nikunj Doshi believes that current phase of market provides opportunities for identifying long-term investments. USD and Gold are considered best hedges against global volatility and will continue to remain strong as long as geopolitical tensions remain high.
Overall, outlook remains negative for the next 12–18 months, given the lack of visibility on any sustainable near-term catalysts, said Nitin Bhasin of Ambit.
Markets are like a long Bollywood saga—twists, turns, but the hero (fundamentals) eventually wins. Stay invested smartly, avoid noise, focus on adaptability, Nilesh Shah advised.