'Sword' dangling over Tamil Nadu: Why has d​elimitation made MK Stalin see red?

MK Stalin

Home Minister Amit Shah on Wednesday dismissed Tamil Nadu Chief Minister MK Stalin's claim that the state would lose eight Lok Sabha seats due to delimitation.

The delimitation exercise, expected next year, has become a major flashpoint between the ruling DMK in Tamil Nadu and the BJP-led central government.

What is delimitation?

Delimitation is essentially the process of fixing the number of seats and boundaries of territorial constituencies in each state for the Lok Sabha and Legislative assemblies. It is based on the population in the most recent Census. According to Article 82 of the Constitution, the allocation of Lok Sabha seats to each state must be adjusted based on population changes after each Census is completed.

This delimitation process is performed by the Delimitation Commission that is set up under an act of Parliament. Such an exercise was carried out after the 1951, 1961 and 1971 Census.

However, in 2001, delimitation was delayed for another 25 years with the 84th Amendment under the Atal Bihari Vajpayee-led BJP government. Though constituency boundaries were redrawn according to the 2001 Census, the total number of Lok Sabha seats and the number of seats allotted to each state remained unchanged.

What would the 2026 delimitation be like?

In 2026, the estimated population of India will reportedly be 1.42 billion.  The census and delimitation exercise that will precede the implementation of Women's Reservation Bill, is expected to increase the number of Lok Sabha seats from 543 to 753. The Women's Reservation Bill, which provides 33% reservation for women in elections, was passed by Parliament in 2023.

However, an Indian Express report stated that a 2019 analysis by Carnegie Endowment for International Peace found that to ensure proportional representation based on population projections for 2026, the Lok Sabha would have to expand to 848 members, so no state loses out on seats.

The biggest jump is expected to be in Uttar Pradesh, which already sends the largest number of members to Parliament.

Why is Tamil Nadu worried?

Any delimitation exercise would seek to allocate seats so that each parliamentary constituency has roughly the same population. On paper that would be an increase in seats in states with high populations.

Tamil Nadu Chief Minister MK Stalin called for an all-party meeting on March 5 to discuss the issue of delimitation.

He has described the implications of constituency delimitation as a “sword dangling over Tamil Nadu”. Stalin has been saying that if delimitation is implemented based on population census, Tamil Nadu will lose 8 of its 39 Lok Sabha constituencies.  This, he feared, will lead to the state losing representation in Parliament.  “As the Chief Minister of Tamil Nadu, I bring to everyone's attention that the Lok Sabha delimitation exercise based on the 2026 Census is extremely dangerous. Southern states like Tamil Nadu have done a great job in controlling population growth. But if that is the reason why our strength in Parliament will decrease, if it can suppress our voice, how can it be justified?” Stalin posted on X.

What does the Centre say?

Addressing BJP workers at the inauguration of party offices in Coimbatore, Tiruvannamalai, and Ramanathapuram, Shah said a  meeting will be held to ensure the South does not suffer on account of delimitation.

“The public in Tamil Nadu is disturbed. This is why the Tamil Nadu CM (M K Stalin) and his son (Udhayanidhi Stalin) are trying to distract the public. Mr Stalin, the Modi government has made it clear in Lok Sabha that after delimitation, on a pro rata basis, not a single seat will be reduced in any Southern state. And I want to reassure the public of South India that Modi ji has kept your interest in mind to make sure that not even one seat is reduced pro rata,” he said.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi for the first time waded into the looming issue of delimitation during a rally in Telangana. Speaking in Nizamabad, he used the phrase “Jitni aabadi, utna haq”, first mentioned by Congress leader Rahul Gandhi  during the Karnataka Assembly elections to press for a caste census.