Mahila, Muslim and Sikh vote necessary for AAP to retain Delhi: MC Analysis

AAP needs Muslims, Mahila and Sikh to retain Delhi

The Aam Aadmi Party needs to retain its vote among women, Muslims and Sikhs in Delhi to win Delhi again, according to a Moneycontrol analysis.

The Aam Aadmi Party performed better in these three constituencies in terms of vote share in 2020 than in the previous election.

In the 19 seats where the share of women was higher than 47 percent, which is the average across the national capital, the AAP improved its vote share despite losing the Rohini and Rohtas Nagar seats to the BJP in the last election.

The average vote share across these seats increased to 55.8 percent from 53.4 percent.

AAP also did better among the five Sikh seats as well, as it increased its vote share to 54.7 percent from 52.3 percent.

The other constituency where AAP seems to have done better are the 12 muslim seats. Analysis shows that the vote share of the ruling dispensation rose the fastest in this category to 58.5 percent from 54.9 percent.

These alone account for 26 MLAs in the 70 seat Delhi Assembly.

The AAP won the last election (2020) with 62 seats and 2015 election with 67 seats.

Seat gains

However, converting vote shares into seat gains could be an uphill task. Moneycontrol analysis shows that while AAP retained control over 55 seats, it could only win nine seats with a higher margin than the previous year.

There have only been three sure-shot seats for the BJP in the last four elections.

Moneycontrol analysis further shows a 15-18 percent vote share that shifts away from one party to another between Lok Sabha and Vidhan Sabha elections.

This vote share has witnessed a constant shift since 2014 in subsequent elections.

Where can AAP lose?

The party can lose its vote share in the 11 seats where Yamuna flows and in areas with high Purvanchali votes.

Analysis indicates that in these regions, BJP gained the most increasing its vote share from 30-35 percent to over 40 percent in 2020 election.

With a resurgent Congress, anti incumbency and rising tide of BJP these seats could play a big role in helping BJP win more seats.

Besides, social media trends indicate that besides Kejriwal, Yogi Adityanath, the chief minister of Uttar Pradesh, got more traction in searches during the times he campaigned in Delhi election.

Current chief minister Atishi was barely visible in search trends in the run up to the polls.