Legacy on the line: Why BMC elections are a make-or-break for Uddhav Thackeray

The long-delayed BMC polls will test Sena (UBT)’s relevance in Mumbai, the city of its birth.

• BMC elections could decide the future of Uddhav Thackeray's Shiv Sena (UBT)
• Shinde's faction and BJP challenge Sena (UBT) amid split and shifting alliances
• Thackeray cousins unite, appeal to Marathi identity in key political moment.

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The Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC) elections that got underway Thursday morning could determine the future relevance and survival of Uddhav Thackeray's Shiv Sena (UBT).

In the last BMC elections in 2017, the BJP came close to dethroning the then undivided Shiv Sena, winning 82 seats against the former's 84 in the 227-seat civic body. Despite this, the BJP allowed Shiv Sena to establish their mayor and extended outside support.

However, the 2023 split in the Shiv Sena altered the electoral dynamics. Eknath Shinde's faction, recognised as the official Shiv Sena by the Election Commission, has been aggressively targeting Shiv Sena (UBT)’s traditional voter base in Mumbai.

The BJP, with its strong organisational machinery and resources, has been eyeing to capitalise on this division. The Mahayuti’s unified front, bolstered by the leadership of Shinde, Devendra Fadnavis, and Ajit Pawar, presents a formidable challenge to Uddhav.

‘Sena-controlled BMC’

The BMC has often been referred to as a “Sena-controlled” body. However, the party has never won an outright majority on its own and has always governed by forming alliances. It first won the BMC in 1985, securing 74 out of 170 seats (140 contested).

Its best performance to date came in 1997, when it won 103 of the total 221 seats. After that, its tally slipped below 100 and settled at 84 in 2017.

Initially the junior partner in its alliance with the Sena, the BJP finally became the “big brother” in the 2014 Maharashtra assembly elections.

Challenges before Uddhav

Civic polls depend heavily on ground-level cadres, corporators, and local networks — areas where Uddhav hopes his faction still has an edge. However, Uddhav faces internal and external challenges. The absence of a strong alliance and the lingering effects of the Shiv Sena split may weaken his position.

Also, a defeat would strengthen Shinde's claim that his Sena is the “real” inheritor of Balasaheb Thackeray's legacy. The performance of the Shiv Sena UBT in the recent state assembly polls has left many questioning its ability to take on the Mahayuti juggernaut.

The BMC is known to be Asia’s richest civic body, with its mammoth Rs 74,427 crore budget far exceeding the entire budgets of several Indian states.

While the BMC elections have largely to do with civic issues for the city and suburbs of Mumbai, it also sees a huge political campaign. The messaging often has an impact across the country.

A weak ally?

Thackeray cousins Uddhav and Raj came together for the BMC elections after two decades, marking a major political moment in Maharashtra. After the first split in the Shiv Sena in 2005, Raj set up his Maharashtra Navnirman Sena, which also has been a key player in the BMC election. The MNS, however, does not have much of an impact nationally or in the state Assembly. However, it has always fought elections on linguistic and regional pride.

During a recent rally, the cousins made an emotional appeal centred on the rhetoric of “Marathi Manoos”.  Raj had described the BMC poll as the "last election for the Marathi man" and urged voters to unite on the plank of Marathi identity and Maharashtra's future.

However, the proportion of Marathi-speaking residents in Mumbai is lower than might be expected. According to the 2011 Census, in Mumbai, only 35% of the 12.5 million residents reported Marathi as their mother tongue, followed by Hindi at 25% (and naturally, not all Marathi-speakers in the city vote for either party).

Also, the anti-migrant image of MNS may limit their reach among the non-Marathi communities.

The long-delayed BMC polls will test Sena (UBT)’s relevance in Mumbai, the city of its birth. For Uddhav, the BMC election  is  a fight to keep the Thackeray legacy politically alive.