Down but not out: Why Uddhav Thackeray still matters in Mumbai despite BMC setback

For Uddhav Thackeray's Shiv Sena (UBT), this election was about defending its bastion.

• BJP-Shiv Sena (Shinde) alliance leads in 128 wards in BMC elections
• Uddhav Thackeray's faction retains support in traditional Sena bastions
• Shinde Sena's weak performance raises questions about its support base in Mumbai

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The BMC elections, held after prolonged delays due to the pandemic and legal disputes over ward delimitation, was said to be a do-or-die battle for Shiv Sena (UBT) chief Uddav Thackeray.

Days ahead of polls, Uddhav decided to shed his differences with cousin Raj as the two estranged brothers decided to jointly enter the battle for control over Mumbai’s civic body, and the legacy of Balasaheb Thackeray.

That strategy, however, backfired. As per trends and results available at the time of filing this report on Friday, the BJP-Shiv Sena (Shinde faction) alliance was leading in a total of 128 wards, with Shiv Sena on its own leading in 30 seats, consolidating the Mahayuti’s position in Mumbai.

The Shiv Sena (UBT)-MNS-NCP(SP) alliance, on the other hand, appeared stalled, leading in only 68 wards. Within the alliance, UBT leads in 59, MNS in 9, while NCP(SP) has not secured a lead in any seat.

A comparison between the two factions of the Shiv Sena showed that while Uddhav Sena led in 59 of the 160 seats it contested on its own, the Shinde faction was ahead in 30 out of 60 seats where it fielded its candidates, translating into a marginally better strike rate for the Uddhav faction over its rival camp.

The outcome underlines that the Thackeray brand, despite not emerging as the winner, continues to resonate in Mumbai, despite the faction losing senior leaders, the party symbol, and much of its organisational machinery after the Shiv Sena split in 2022.

Why Uddhav cannot be ignored

The Shiv Sena (UBT) chief built his campaign around reclaiming the Sena’s identity, positioning his faction as the ideological heir to Balasaheb Thackeray and invoking the party’s decades-long relationship with the city.

By staying visible in key wards and repeatedly portraying the 2022 split as a betrayal of the Sena’s legacy by Eknath Shinde, he succeeded in retaining support in several traditional bastions.

While the UBT is no longer the city’s dominant political force, its ability to stay in contention against a formidable combination of the BJP and the Shinde-led Sena represents a notable political achievement for Uddhav, especially under adverse circumstances.

The poll outcome also shows that many traditional Sena voters in Mumbai chose to stay with Uddhav’s faction.

What does Shinde Sena’s performance indicate?

Despite the BJP–Shiv Sena combine appearing to have crossed the majority threshold of 114 seats needed to control the BMC, the relatively weak performance of the Eknath Shinde-led Sena has sparked fresh questions about its real support base in Mumbai. The results suggest that while the BJP remains the dominant partner in the alliance, the Shinde faction has struggled to translate its control of the party organisation and symbol into electoral consolidation in the city.

This outcome may complicate the Shinde camp’s efforts to politically justify the 2022 split from Uddhav Thackeray and reinforce its claim as the true inheritor of the Shiv Sena legacy. With Mumbai long regarded as the Sena’s traditional stronghold, the limited gains by the Shinde faction underline the continuing pull of the Thackeray name among sections of the electorate and could reshape future power equations within the Mahayuti alliance as well as the broader battle for Sena’s ideological and emotional base.

The poll results may also indicate that the Shinde faction independently is often perceived as the junior partner of the BJP rather than an independent political force in Mumbai.