BMC blow for MNS and dilution of brand Raj Thackeray

Shiv Sena (UBT) chief Uddhav Thackeray and MNS president Raj Thackeray joined hands to take on the BJP-led Mahayuti.

• Mahayuti alliance leads BMC polls with 122 out of 227 wards.
• MNS faces decline, winning only 10 wards and risks losing state party status.
• Raj Thackeray's rhetoric and alliance with Uddhav failed to sway Mumbai voters.

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The outcome of the high-stakes BMC election has raised stinging questions about the political survival of Raj Thackeray and his party MNS.

As per trends, the Mahayuti alliance is set to win the cash-rich Mumbai civic body with leads/wins in 122 out of 227 wards. The Shiv Sena (UBT) and MNS alliance is expected to fall way short with leads/wins in just 70 wards. The MNS has leads/wins in just 10 wards out of the over 50 it contested, as per trends.

The results clearly show that Raj Thackeray's much-hyped reunion with his cousin Uddhav Thackeray after 20 years failed to dislodge the BJP-Shinde combine. In fact, if anything, the MNS' hardline stance on non-Marathis and aggressive identity-based politics may have even cost his brother Uddhav, who ditched the state-level MVA to contest with his cousin.

The results also signal that Raj Thackeray's strident championing of Marathi pride no longer works as an effective campaign strategy, like it did during the days of Bal Thackeray.

MNS's throwback rhetoric to the Shiv Sena’s early years, including slogans like “hatao lungi, bajao pungi”, did not woo voters, particularly in cosmopolitan centres such as Mumbai and Pune.

The decline for MNS has been constant over the years, with BMC elections now bringing into question the future of Raj Thackeray's brand of politics.

MNS poll record

In the 2009 Maharashtra Assembly elections, the MNS established itself as a serious rival to the Shiv Sena, securing 13 seats and playing a decisive role in the defeat of Sena candidates in more than 50 constituencies. From then on, the MNS never won any election.

In fact, Raj’s ideological inconsistency also confused voters.

From 2009 to 2019, he focused on “sons of the soil” issues. Then, in January 2020, he attempted to reposition himself as a Hindutva leader. From 2011 to 2018, he supported Narendra Modi. Then, in 2019, he turned against Prime Minister Modi by calling him a liar and questioning if he was the “Prime Minister of Gujarat” during his video rallies. The firebrand MNS chief again announced unconditional support for Modi in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls. Thus, his inconsistent ideological expressions confused his own core base.

Immediate challenge before Raj

The MNS now faces a serious risk of derecognition as a state party. The party's vote share had collapsed to 1.55% in the 2024 Assembly elections and it failed to win a single seat. The loss in BMC polls only enhances its problems. Raj's son Amit Thackeray finishing third in Mahim in last year's assembly elections had already stalled succession plans within the party.

Meanwhile, the UBT is no longer the dominant force in Mumbai but its capacity to remain competitive against the powerful BJP–Shinde Sena combine stands out as a significant political achievement for Uddhav.

‘Rasmalai’ jibe backfires, gives BJP bragging rights

As Mahayuti inched towards victory, BJP leaders took potshots at Raj for targeting their leader K Annamalai as “rasmalai.”

Annamalai had described Mumbai not as the capital of Maharashtra but as the financial capital of India and a global city. Raj reacted sharply, accusing him of trying to separate Mumbai from Maharashtra and resorting to his trademark rhetoric that used “lungi” as a slur.

“One rasmalai has come from Tamil Nadu… what is your connection to this place? Hatao lungi, bajao pungi,” Raj Thackeray had said.

However, with the MNS losing, BJP leaders turned the “rasmalai” reference back on Raj, using it to mock his party’s poor performance in the elections.