Bihar poll embarrassment: Akhilesh Yadav's big Congress dilemma in Uttar Pradesh

File: Congress leader Rahul Gandhi (L) and SP chief Akhilesh Yadav (R)

The Congress party’s dismal performance in the Bihar elections has sharply weakened its bargaining position for the 2027 Uttar Pradesh Assembly elections. Contesting 61 seats in Bihar, the Congress won only six, registering a strike rate of 10 percent. The results have reinforced the Samajwadi Party’s view that relying too heavily on Congress could be a liability against the NDA in UP.

Much like Bihar, SP’s core support in Uttar Pradesh rests on the MY (Muslim–Yadav) combination, while the Congress has no solid independent vote bank in the state. This electoral reality, senior SP leaders say, leaves little room for Congress to demand a large share of seats.

A senior SP leader said the party is preparing to contest around 340 of UP’s 403 Assembly seats, leaving only about 63 for potential allies. In contrast, the Congress wants to fight at least one seat in each of UP’s 75 districts to re-establish statewide visibility. But SP is unwilling to give up seats in areas where it has a strong base — districts like Azamgarh, Ambedkar Nagar, Kaushambi and Shamli, where it swept all seats in 2022.

The Congress is also demanding all 10 Assembly seats under the Amethi and Rae Bareli Lok Sabha constituencies, but SP currently holds several of these seats, making such demands difficult to entertain.

Why SP is firm on contesting 340 seats

In the 2022 UP Assembly polls, SP contested through a broad alliance. RLD was allotted 33 seats and SBSP 17, while smaller allies got 10 seats. Pallavi Patel of Apna Dal (K) contested on the SP symbol, and Shivpal Singh Yadav’s party has since merged with SP. Considering the new configuration, SP leaders argue the party can spare only 50–60 seats this time.

Despite recent disagreements, SP chief Akhilesh Yadav has hinted internally that Pallavi Patel’s Apna Dal (K) could still receive up to eight seats if the alliance continues. If SP fights 340 seats, only around 55 seats remain for all allies combined.

Congress’s recent electoral performance in UP is a major reason behind SP’s toughened stance. In the 2022 Assembly elections, Congress contested 399 seats but won only two — Farrenda and Rampur Khas — securing just 2.33 percent of the vote.

In the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, Congress contested 17 seats in alliance with SP and won six, raising its vote share to 9.46 percent. Across the 85 Assembly segments within these 17 Lok Sabha seats, Congress led in 39. However, many of these 39 seats are currently represented by SP MLAs, making it unlikely that SP will concede them.

Meanwhile, former allies RLD and SBSP — which previously held nearly 50 seats between them — have joined the NDA. SP is therefore under no compulsion to reserve their earlier share for Congress.

Congress leaders point out that in 2017, SP allotted them 100 seats, and the party eventually contested 114 seats and won seven. SP won 47. Congress had finished second in 44 seats and secured over 6.25 percent of the votes. They argue this record justifies a larger space in UP.

SP leaders counter that even in 2017, Congress was effectively strong in only around 50 seats, and its influence has weakened considerably since then.

Bihar results deepen SP’s skepticism

SP’s position has hardened after Bihar’s verdict, where Congress’s poor performance dragged down the Mahagathbandhan. Despite RJD’s strong MY base, the alliance secured only 37 percent votes, compared to the NDA’s 47 percent. RJD won 25 of the 143 seats it contested, while the Congress won just six.

Political analyst Rajendra Kumar says the Bihar verdict has exposed the Congress’s structural weaknesses: “The Congress has no independent mobilisation capacity in large parts of the Hindi belt. Its vote transfer capability is limited, and Bihar has made that more evident. This directly affects how allies perceive its utility in UP.”

Analyst R N Bajpayee adds that the party’s inability to retain traditional supporters has raised doubts within the opposition camp. “In Bihar, Congress failed to hold even the minimum support expected of a national party. For SP, this becomes a warning sign. They cannot afford to weaken their own strongholds by overvaluing a partner with declining ground strength,” he says.

While the SP-led PDA (Pichhda–Dalit–Alpsankhyak) front performed well in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls, the alliance could not replicate this success in subsequent Assembly bypolls, where SP won only two out of nine seats.

With BJP strengthening its OBC outreach by bringing SBSP back into its fold and retaining Apna Dal and the Nishad Party, the caste arithmetic is shifting further in NDA’s favor. Dalit consolidation behind BSP also poses a challenge to the opposition bloc.

For now, the Congress’s weak electoral footprint, combined with its performance in Bihar, has significantly diminished its bargaining power in UP — bolstering SP’s resolve to keep the lion’s share of seats for itself in the 2027 Assembly battle.