Big takeaways from Delhi election results: How BJP broke through Kejri-wall

BJP workers celebrate the party's victory in the Delhi Assembly election (PTI)

The BJP made a rousing return to Delhi after edging out the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) and its formidable chief Arvind Kejriwal in an all-out contest for supremacy, ending its long drought of 27 years.

The Election Commission trends show that BJP is set to win 48 seats in the national capital, in a massive gain of around 40 seats from the 2020 election. AAP is set to win around 22 seats — almost one-third of the number of seats it won 10 years ago in 2015 when it first came to power in Delhi with brute majority.

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The Congress failed to impress for the third time in a row and is set to score another duck in this election, completing a hattrick of zeroes.

Here are the big takeaways from the Delhi election result:

Modi on the ticket = Bad news for Kejriwal

Remember 2014 Lok Sabha elections? Arvind Kejriwal took a bold gambit of challenging Modi, the then Prime Minister candidate of BJP, from the Varanasi constituency. Kejriwal not only suffered a massive defeat but even lost his deposit. The humbling lesson was that when it comes to a popularity contest, Kejriwal stood no where near Modi's league. In the last decade or so, the AAP supremo has become far more popular as a political leader than he was back in 2014. However, when it comes to facing Modi in a direct contest, he still comes up short. That's what happened in Delhi.

Right off the bat, BJP projected Modi as its face in Delhi in 2025. It perhaps learned the lessons from 2015 and 2020 when it failed to strike a chord with voters after contesting the elections under Kiran Bedi and Manoj Tiwari, respectively. This time, the party was clear that Modi is on the ticket in Delhi and did not project a CM face before the elections. In a straight fight, PM Modi again proved to be insurmountable for Kejriwal.

My freebie vs yours

Though BJP leader Ramesh Bidhuri said that his party will end the freebie culture in Delhi soon, his party did not shy away from matching - and even surpassing - Kejriwal's model of "revri politics", as Modi likes to call it. In its manifesto for Delhi, BJP offered Rs 2,500 montly aid to poor women (higher than AAP's Rs 2,100), subsidized LPG, announced Rs 5 meals for poor and free healthcare under Ayushman Bharat. While the BJP did not explicitly mention AAP’s free electricity and water schemes, it assured voters that no existing welfare benefits for the poor would be discontinued. The saffron party adopted AAP's model of freebie politics to court the same voter groups that powered Kejriwal's party to historic victories in both 2015 and 2020.

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BJP's secular advances

The saffron party dominated the length and breadth of Delhi in its thumping return to the capital. An analysis of the election results shows that it completely dominated certain pockets of Delhi while making crucial inroads in others. For instance, in 12 seats with high Jat population, BJP completed dominated AAP by winning 11 seats. In slum areas, it won 12 out of 18 seats and in Punjabi-dominated seats, it won 9 out of 4 constituencies. Even in the Purvanchali region, which is the core voter base of AAP, BJP won 18 out of 25 seats. While AAP dominated the Muslim and SC seats, BJP did make inroads in these regions. In Muslim-significant constituencies (those with at least 30% Muslim population), BJP managed to win 3 seats – an addition of 2 over 2020. Among the 12 seats reserved for Scheduled Caste candidates, the saffron party managed to win 4. In 2020, it failed secure even a single SC-reserved seat.

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Silent RSS campaign makes noise on D-Day

The importance of Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) cannot be discounted in any BJP victory, be it state or national election. In Delhi too, the RSS effect can be felt in BJP's resounding victory. Sangh workers actively campaigned for the party in the national capital, with reports saying that they held as many as 50,000 drawing room meetings to "educate voters". In his post-election analysis on Moneycontrol, author Arun Anand wrote that Sangh played a key role in mobilising the voters and creating a buzz on the ground around local issues. He said the RSS cadres mobilised voters under the "Save Delhi Campaign" and helped build a groundswell of support for BJP in the run up to the February 5 election. After reports of a lacklustre and unmotivated cadre response in the Lok Sabha polls, the Sangh hit the ground again in full strength for both the Haryana and Maharashtra elections, resulting in a saffron sweep in both the states last year.

Budget proved to be aam aadmi's 'party'

A middle class-friendly Budget, especially just four days before polling, is a surefire advantage for any party. For BJP, finance minister Nirmala Sitharaman's Budget speech may just have been more impactful than a hundred political rallies. On February 1, Sitharaman announced significant relief for the middle class in the Budget when she made annual income up to Rs 12 lakh tax free. Given that the middle class group makes up over 67% of the Delhi's electorate, this announcement was enough for BJP to score major brownie points from the aam aadmi. In the end, a sweeping tax relief for lakh of salaried class voters—described aptly by PM Modi as Goddess Lakshmi's blessings—proved to be a game-changer for BJP in this election, something that even AAP's freebies couldn't match.

Anti-incumbency catches up with AAP

AAP won a decisive mandate of the people of Delhi in two successive elections. The promises of clean governance, corruption-free government, free water and electricity swayed the sentiments of Delhi voters and helped Kejriwal emerge as a force to be reckoned with. The AAP chief fully capitalized on this wave by craftily positioning himself as the "janta ka laadla," embracing a classic son-of-the-soil brand of politics. But anti-incumbency can catch up with the most beloved netas - and Kejriwal was no exception. While AAP cemented its image as Delhi's own, it fell prey to several miscalculations. Kejriwal was unable to shrug off the taint of corruption after most high-profile leaders from his party, including the AAP chief himself, found their way into the prison in the liquor policy scam. That Kejriwal continued to run Delhi from Tihar jail seemed more like drama than a revolutionary battle. Moreover, AAP failed to fix the civic woes of Delhi despite winning the MCD polls, fanning the anti-incumbency sentiment further.

Congress 'hattrick' but there's a catch

To borrow a cricket anology, the Congress did not trouble the scorers as it drew yet another blank in the Delhi election. For a party that ruled Delhi for 15 years (1998-2013), this is an embarrassing statistic to own. Especially since it always held sway with the voters of Delhi, one of the few regions in the north where Hindutva politics doesn't really cut ice.

Despite winning 0 seats, the grand old party marginally improved its vote share from 4.26% in 2020 to 6.37% in 2025. That's where the catch lies. The Congress may have dented AAP's prospects in several constituencies by cutting into its vote base since the INDIA bloc allies fought the Delhi elections separately. These include key Muslim and Dalit-significant seats too. According to an early analysis, Congress polled more than BJP's victory margin in as many as 13 seats, including New Delhi (where Kejriwal lost), Malviya Nagar (where Somnath Bharti lost) and Greater Kailash (where Saurabh Bharadwaj lost). Earlier, during the counting, Jammu and Kashmir chief minister Omar Abdullah took a swipe at Congress and AAP with a popular meme, saying "Aur lado aapas mein!!!" (fight more among yourselves). The Delhi election results indicate that while Congress failed to make any impact on its own, it may have just played spoilsport for AAP.