Untamed global warming risks soaring death toll in Middle East

Already grappling with an acute lack of water and temperatures that regularly reach 45 degrees Celsius in the summer months, the Middle East and North Africa is particularly vulnerable to the effects of climate change.

More than 80 percent of heat-related deaths predicted in the Middle East and North Africa by the end of this century could be prevented if global warming is limited to 2 degrees Celsius, according to a new study published in The Lancet Planetary Health.

Already grappling with an acute lack of water and temperatures that regularly reach 45 degrees Celsius in the summer months, the Middle East and North Africa is particularly vulnerable to the effects of climate change. It’s warming about twice as fast as the global average, which means maximum temperatures are currently predicted to rise to almost 50°C by the century’s end, potentially rendering some areas unlivable.

About 123 people per 100,000 are expected to die of heat-related causes annually by 2100 under high-emissions scenarios that would see temperatures rise significantly, the researchers found. That’s about 60 times greater than today’s heat-related deaths and much higher than the most dire predictions for the rest of the planet.

With the United Arab Emirates due to host the COP28 international climate talks later this year, global leaders are expected to turn their attention to a region that produces much of the world’s crude oil but stands to suffer most from the resulting emissions of planet-warming gas.

In a new study, an international team of researchers led by the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine modeled current and future trends in heat-related mortality in 19 countries in the Middle East and North Africa. The team considered variations in the levels of potential greenhouse gas emissions over time and different socioeconomic scenarios.

Under high emissions scenarios, most of the region will experience substantial levels of warming by the 2060s, leading to an increase in associated deaths from about two per 100,000 today to about 123 per 100,000 in the period between 2081 and 2100.

Iran is expected to have the highest annual death rate in the region (423 per 100,000), with the Palestinian territories, Iraq and Israel also heavily affected with 186, 169 and 163 deaths per 100,000, respectively. Smaller Gulf states, such as Qatar and the UAE, would see the greatest relative increases in heat-related deaths.

However, if global warming can be limited to 2°C above preindustrial levels, the researchers found that over 80 percent of those deaths could be avoided.

“Global warming will need to be limited to 2°C to avoid the catastrophic health impacts estimated in our study,” Shakoor Hajat, lead author and professor of global environmental health at LSHTM said. “Even with stronger action, countries in the region need to develop ways other than air-conditioning to protect their citizens from the dangers of extreme heat.”