ICICI Direct's currency report on USDINR
The US dollar index retreated to 104 level after climbing as high as 104.40 on Monday, amid weaker set of economic numbers. The US ISM service PMI slid to a five–month low of 50.3, lower than expectations of an increase to 52.4. US April factory orders rose 0.4% MoM, softer than expectation of 0.8% MoM. The set of disappointing economic numbers reinforced bets that the US Federal Reserve will hit a pause button next week • The rupee maturing on June 27 depreciated by 0.39% on Monday amid a strong dollar and rise in crude oil prices • The rupee is likely to gain strength amid softness in the dollar and retreat in crude oil prices. Further growing probability of no hike in June could hurt the dollar. The US$INR pair is expected to face a hurdle near 82.70 and move back towards 82.20. Only a close below 82.20 would weaken the pair towards 82.00.
Intra-day strategy
| US$INR June futures contract (NSE) | |
| Sell USDINR in the range of 82.70-82.72 | |
| Target:82.40 | Stop Loss: 82.84 |
| Support: 82.40/82.30 | 82.84/82.95 |
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