What Erdogan's victory means for Turkey and the world

Supporters of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan wave flags in front of his picture in Istanbul (AP file photo)

Voters in Turkey elected strongman Tayyip Recep Erdogan to power for another five years in Sunday’s run-off presidential election, bringing joy to a large number of his supporters in the rural and remote areas but disappointing the pro-western, liberal sections in the country.

Erdogan has already been in power for the past 20 years. The fresh verdict will extend his rule into a third decade. Despite the relentless campaign in the western media, his victory on Sunday does not come as a surprise.

In the first round on May 14, Erdogan won nearly 50 percent of the vote, followed by Kemal Kilicdaroglu with about 45 percent. On Sunday he got 52.1 percent 1to his challenger’s 47.9 percent.

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Apart from his core support base among the poorer and more conservative sections in the country, Erdogan is believed to have had most of the votes of women, who represent 50.6 percent of the electorate.

In addition, the millions of first-time voters, who made up almost 8 percent of the electorate and were seen as the largest group of undecided voters, are perceived to have rallied behind the incumbent president.

Erdogan has promised to check rising inflation and rebuild areas of the country devastated by the February earthquake, making these top priorities in his new tenure. Since the first round of voting, the status of the 3.6 million Syrian refugees in Turkey has also become a key issue.

For supporters of liberal democracy and groups like the LGBTQ plus, as well as sections that were keen that Turkey be accepted in the European Union, the election result is a major setback. Erdogan has been harsh on his political detractors and journalists critical of his policies. Many fear that his victory would mean that political prisoners will remain in jail.

For the United States-led Western countries that had been backing Kilicdaroglu, the united opposition candidate, Erdogan’s victory will be disappointing and a cause for concern. Western democracies wanted to give out a strong signal to all strongmen in power, if Erdogan lost. His victory will now signal to the world that strongmen around the world can continue to rule and be re-elected despite efforts by America to get them defeated.

NATO and Erdogan

For Washington, Erdogan’s presence and independent stand has often diluted NATO's effectiveness as a powerful military alliance. Turkey has the second-largest army in NATO after the US. But its position has not always been in sync with other members.

In 2016 Erdogan reached an agreement with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin to purchase a Russian S-400 anti-aircraft missile system, ignoring US defence industry sanctions on Turkey. Turkey’s approval of Sweden’s entry into NATO — a decision that Erdogan had held back on for months — may now be delayed further.

Turkey-Russia relations

Russia will definitely be happy and relieved with Erdogan’s victory. The withdrawal of Western companies from Russia due to the existing sanctions has allowed Moscow and Ankara to strengthen economic and trade ties.

Nearly 33 Turkish companies set up shop in Russia last year, while Russia also established more than 1,300 firms in Turkey in 2022. Russia has built Turkey’s first civilian nuclear plant at a cost of $20 billion, signifying flourishing energy and economic ties. Turkey also benefits from Russia’s cheap oil and gas.

Impact on the Ukraine war

A key worry in the western camp will be about how Erdogan’s victory will impact the ongoing Ukraine war. Turkey occupies a unique geographical position, lying partly in Europe and partly in Asia. However, its strategic importance lies not only as a security provider in Europe but also because it controls the Bosphorus.

The Bosphorus is one of the most important straits in the world, connecting the Black Sea, and the ships from Russia and Ukraine, to the Dardanelles Strait, through which ships enter the Mediterranean Sea.

President Erdogan and Putin have developed a strong bond and Moscow is today considered one of the main backers of Ankara in helping the country tide over its current economic crisis. Erdogan’s anti-Western rhetoric has served Moscow’s interest by undermining unity in NATO and undercutting sweeping Western sanctions imposed on Russia for its invasion of Ukraine.

Russia had transferred billions of dollars to projects in Turkey to help the country prop up its economy during the crisis. Both Erdogan and Putin found common cause in challenging a world order dominated by the United States. Observers think this bond is likely to grow even stronger in the coming days.

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India-Turkey relations

India’s relations with Turkey have mostly been testy largely because of Ankara’s pro-Pakistan position, which often led it to be critical of the situation in Kashmir in various international fora. But attempts are now being made to iron out differences and look for a more cooperative and cordial relationship.

Erdogan and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi had met on the side-lines of the Bali G20 summit last year. They could meet again for a more substantial interaction at the G20 summit in New Delhi in September.

As the dust from the just-held elections settles down, Turkey and the US are likely to adopt a more realistic approach to reset relations in the coming months.

But Erdogan’s arrogance and autocratic ways could worsen. Victory in the presidential election may only heighten his sense of invincibility and turn him into a more intolerant and difficult leader.