Dolat Capital Market's research report on Container Corporation of India
Q2 was an operationally good quarter for Concor with revenues in line and EBIDTA and PAT better than estimates (Refer Exhibit 1). Q2 revenues were at Rs15Bn down 13% YoY / up 26% QoQ led -10%/-2% volume/realization decline. EXIM/Domestic Revenue mix stood at 90:10% vs 94:6% YoY/ 84:16% QoQ. EBITDA margin came at 20.8%, sequentially better than that reported in Q1. The company has also bettered its FY21 volume guidance from a 20% decline earlier to a 10% decline or better. However, the shadow of Land license fee looms. Indian Railways have raised a demand of Rs12.8bn for as the annual LLF for the year 2020-21 for 13 Terminals of Concor. (compared to Rs7.7bn demand for 2 terminals in Q1). In comparison, Concor has provided for LLF of Rs2.33bn in H1, in line with its own estimate of Rs4.5bn. It is very emphatic that its estimate of Rs4.5bm will prevail as compared to the demand raised by Indian Railways.
Outlook
We change our estimate based on company estimate of LLF and revised volume guidance, as outlined in Exhibit 3. However, given the shadow of higher land licence fees loom (demands raised for only 13 of the 28 terminals), we move our rating to Reduce with a DCF based target price of Rs400.
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