ICICI Securities research report on Indian Hotels
Indian Hotels’ (IHCL) FY24 annual report highlights the benefits that it has derived from the hotel industry’s tailwinds and the company’s strong pan-India brand-scape. IHCL clocked consol. Revenue/EBITDA growth of 16.5%/19.5% in FY24. Heading into FY25, incremental growth will likely stem from a heathy room pipeline of 12,953 rooms over FY24– 28E vs. 24,136 operational keys, as of Mar’24. We introduce FY27 estimates, building-in FY24–27E revenue/EBITDA CAGRs of 14%/18% and 8–10% annual EBITDA growth from its existing assets, while commencement of new hotels adds to this.
Outlook
With the stock price correcting ~10% in the last three months, we upgrade IHCL to BUY, from Hold, with a SoTP-based revised TP of INR640 (earlier INR617), rolling forward to 26x Jun’26E EV/EBITDA. Key risks: Demand slowdown and slower ARR growth.
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