Anand Rathi's research report on Arvind Fashions
Despite muted demand, Arvind Fashions posted 11% retail LTL growth y/y, with double-digit LTL growth for all its five brands. The retail channel outshone (15% growth y/y), driven by higher ad-spend, store expansion and celebrity collaborations. LTL PAT (post-minority interest) doubled y/y to Rs587m in 9M FY25, while working capital was stable with stock turns of >4x. RoCE rose to 19% (TTM) from 16% in FY24, backed by greater profitability. Adjacent categories outpaced overall growth, with women's wear sales doubling and innerwear growing in mid-teens. Arrow is progressing towards mid-to-high singledigit EBITDA margins, while Flying Machine's rebranding gains traction; both are set to turn PAT positive in the medium term. Targets 12-15% sales growth in the medium term with a 100bp annual EBITDA margin expansion.
Outlook
We lower our FY25-27 revenue/EBITDA estimates ~2%/3% due to weak demand, with a higher EPS cut due to IND AS 116-led depreciation/ interest. Expecting 12%/20%/53% revenue/EBITDA/EPS CAGRs over FY24-27, we retain our Buy rating, with a TP of Rs685 on 11x FY27e EV/EBITDA (earlier Rs717 on 11x FY27e EV/EBITDA).
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