Short Call: Timing the market is futile in a bull run; Vodafone, SpiceJet, HCL in focus

Representative image

As the stock market reaches new highs, so does the noise around high valuations. But the real question is: What should investors do? Market experts often say, "Tread cautiously," but that advice doesn’t clarify whether to sit on cash, steer towards quality stocks (even at high valuations), or seek refuge in low-valuation stocks, which may have low quality or poor growth prospects. These questions often lack clear answers.

Market veteran Samir Arora, however, broke down the math behind market timing and highlighted a practical (and somewhat humorous) issue with timing the market. 'Market timing' involves buying and selling securities based on short-term price expectations and making cash calls accordingly.

Arora explained that Warren Buffett, having held approximately $150 billion in cash over the last two years, potentially lost around $60 billion in opportunity cost, even after treasury gains, as the U.S. market surged 50 percent during that time. Now, with $280 billion in cash, Buffett would need markets to fall at least 20 percent just to break even on missed opportunities, and closer to 30 percent to generate any real value.

Arora amusingly added that one challenge with making active cash calls is not knowing what to hope for. "What do you pray for every morning? That markets go down because you have cash, or that markets go up because you’re heavily invested? It can get very confusing for both you and God."

HCL Technologies (Rs 1,760, 1.5%)

Shares rose after a two-day slump following Kotak’s downgrade as it was trading at full valuations.

Bull Case: HCLTech can deliver consistent industry-matching or industry-leading growth, led by a balanced portfolio of services and strength in cost-takeout deals. HCL Tech will benefit from a recovery in industry growth in FY2026E.

Bear Case: The headwinds include the anniversary of the Verizon deal and modest deal wins over the past few quarters, leading to lesser than ideal visibility for growth in FY2026E, added Kotak.

Vodafone Idea (Rs 10.47, +0.87%)

The stock recovered after nosediving 20% following the Supreme Court's move to reject telecom companies' plea for the re-computation of adjusted gross revenue (AGR) dues.

Bull Case: Despite AGR dues concerns, Nomura upgraded Vodafone Idea to "buy," citing a strong industry outlook and government support to ease funding gaps. UBS maintained its 'buy' rating, noting that equity conversion or deferral of dues remains possible post-SC verdict. Meanwhile, as per Nuvama, VI’s potential capital raise and tariff hikes could improve its financial health and accelerate its 4G and 5G expansion.

Bear Case: According to IIFL Securities, the cash flow situation for Vodafone Idea is expected to become more challenging without relief from the court. Goldman Sachs believes that the country’s third-largest telecom operator will be unable to stop the relentless erosion of its market share, despite its recent capital raise.

SpiceJet (Rs 66, -3.25%)

Raises Rs 3,000 crore via share sale

Bull case: Given the airline successfully raised Rs 3,000 crore from qualified institutional buyers, more such fundraises can help the cash-strapped airline to meet its debt obligations to lessors. Once debt obligations are met, it can help the airline to remove the grounding of the fleet and increase market share.

Bear case: The inability to repay its debt, grounding of flights, and SC's hold order on the grounded fleet, all can make the case for the stock's derating scenario. Moreover, the company has lost significant market share compared to other peers, hence it will take some time to pick up pace with others.

(With inputs from Lovisha, Harshita, and Zoya)