Not just China, India faces risk of flux of farm imports from US as well

Prime Minister Narendra Modi and US President Donald Trump

India is faced with the challenge of $590 million worth of US farm produce, including grapes, mandarins and extra virgin olive oil, being dumped into the country as the fallout of the escalating trade war between the United States and China.

The tariff war between the world’s two biggest economies not only creates an opportunity for China to ship more products to India but a Moneycontrol analysis shows that the US, too, could look to export an additional $590 million worth of agricultural goods.

“Because of this trade war, some Chinese goods to US will not be able to go and some US goods to China won't be able to go... So, there's a possibility of import surge from the US, especially agriculture, since the majority of America’s $140-odd billion exports are in the category of farm produce,” a government official said.

Of the US’ $141.3-billion agricultural exports in 2024, China accounted for a 13.5 percent share at $19.1 billion. India’s share was a low 1.4 percent at $1.9 billion.

New Delhi fears that Washington could divert a significant amount of goods that it exports both to India and China to the Indian shores, which could also impact Beijing’s exports to the South Asian nation.

China exported $445 million worth of agricultural goods to India in 2024, of which, $163-million worth of products were in categories that where imported goods from both the US and China.

The US could capture $80 million of this trade from China if goods are available at a cheaper rate.

India imported $35.7 billion worth of agricultural goods in 2024.

The repeated tariff retaliation between the two countries has seen the US raise tariffs on Chinese goods to 145 percent. Beijing has increased duties on American goods to 125 percent.

India has set up an inter-ministerial committee to monitor surges in imports following the escalating trade tensions between two countries.

Key commodities

Among the top categories that could see the US and China competing with each other are grapes, yeast and mushroom spawns, as India imports nearly $60 million worth of goods in these categories.

Th US could take away trade from other nations for exports of agriculture goods to India in categories like mandarins, extra virgin olive oil and coffee extracts.

For instance, in 2024, India imported $19 million worth of mandarins, of which just $1.8 million were from the United States. Washington, on the other hand, exported $49 million worth of mandarins to China.

Similarly, for extra virgin olive oil, India’s imports from the US were just a fraction of the $15.8 million from the rest of the world. In contrast, China received $339 million worth of extra virgin olive oil from the US.