Trading Plan: Can Nifty 50 snap back after 7-day slide, Bank Nifty extend gains on F&O expiry?

Nifty Trading Plan For September 30

Overall, the market sentiment remained weak given the subdued technical and momentum indicators. However, there is some possibility of a rebound given the Tweezer Bottom formation on the hourly chart with strong volumes, but the sustainability of that uptrend is the key to watch during the monthly F&O expiry session. The Nifty 50 is likely to face resistance at the 24,800–24,900 zone; however, the immediate support is placed at 24,600 and 24,500, below which selling pressure may widen. Meanwhile, if the Bank Nifty continues its previous day’s uptrend, 54,700–55,000 is the immediate zone to watch on the higher side; however, 54,200–54,000 can act as support levels, experts said.

On September 29, the Nifty 50 declined 20 points to 24,635, while the Bank Nifty climbed 72 points to 54,461, with moderately weak market breadth. A total of 1,459 shares were favoured by bears, against 1,335 shares that were supported by bulls on the NSE.

Nifty Outlook and Strategy

Jay Thakkar, Vice President & Head of Derivatives and Quant Research at ICICI Securities

Nifty has fallen for 7 consecutive days, so there is a possibility of a bounce. However, with this kind of fall, the overall trend for the index has reversed from up to down. Based on F&O data, it is more likely that the Nifty will break its previous low of 24,400 and fall to 24,200, which is the next support.

Based on the options data, the 24,800 strike is an immediate resistance as it has significant Call base, whereas the 24,000 strike has the highest Put base, so the overall range is quite wide — 24,000–24,800. Now, within this wider range, 24,400–24,800 is the short-term range. So until 24,800 is not taken out, sell on rise should be the approach for a target of 24,400 on an immediate basis, and below that, 24,200 levels.

The PCR (Put-Call Ratio) is at 0.62, which indicates weakness in the near term and is not even oversold. The IVs (Implied Volatility) have inched above 10, at 10.31, indicating volatility in the near term.

Key Resistance: 24,800, 25,000

Key Support: 24,400, 24,200

Strategy: Sell Nifty Futures on a rise near 24,800, with a stop-loss of 25,050, targeting 24,400 and 24,200.

Jigar S Patel, Senior Manager - Equity Research at Anand Rathi

Currently, Nifty is hovering near a bullish trendline that provided support earlier this month, with prices just above the 24,600 level. On the daily scale, the index closed below the 100 DEMA but remains above the 200 DEMA, suggesting potential sideways movement in the near term.

The steep decline last week formed a sharp hourly trendline, which is unlikely to hold for long. On the hourly chart, a Tweezer Bottom near 24,600 coincides with bullish RSI divergence and supporting signals from hourly OBV (On-Balance Volume), indicating a possible short-term bounce or stabilization around current levels.

Key Resistance: 24,800, 25,000

Key Support: 24,600, 24,500

Strategy: Buy Nifty Futures in the 24,700–24,650 zone, with a stop-loss of 24,500, targeting 25,000.

Shitij Gandhi, Sr. Research Analyst (Technicals), SMC Global Securities

The Nifty 50 has now logged multiple sessions of muted performance, with traders showing caution amid global uncertainties and domestic fund outflows. Nifty’s close below 24,650 levels reflects a fragile sentiment, with the outlook remaining tilted in favour of the bears. The 24,500 level acts as the line in the sand for near-term direction. A decisive break below 24,500 could fuel another round of selling pressure in the index.

Key Resistance: 24,800, 25,000

Key Support: 24,500, 24,300

Strategy: Sell Nifty Futures on rallies near 24,850, with a stop-loss above 25,100, targeting 24,450.

Bank Nifty - Outlook and Positioning

Jay Thakkar, Vice President & Head of Derivatives and Quant Research at ICICI Securities

The Bank Nifty has been outperforming the Nifty for the last couple of days and is trading relatively better. However, the overall trend in Bank Nifty seems to have reversed as well. Within Bank Nifty, the Nifty PSU Bank Index is outperforming the Nifty Private Sector Bank Index, and that is bullish for PSU Banks from a medium- to long-term perspective.

The weight of private sector banks is higher in Bank Nifty, which will put pressure on the index and may not allow it to move above 56,000 levels in the short to medium term.

Ahead of the RBI monetary policy, the index is trading sideways. However, the overall set-up is sideways to negative; hence, sell on rise should be the approach. The 55,000 strike has the highest Call base, whereas the 54,000 strike has the highest Put base, and it is likely to close within this range ahead of the RBI policy.

Key Resistance: 55,000, 55,800

Key Support: 54,000, 53,500

Strategy: Sell Bank Nifty Futures on a rise near 55,000, with a stop-loss of 55,800, targeting 54,000 and 53,500.

Jigar S Patel, Senior Manager - Equity Research at Anand Rathi

At present, Bank Nifty is trading near the 61.8% retracement of its previous upward move, indicating a key support zone. On the 15-minute intraday chart, an inverse head and shoulders pattern is forming, with the neckline positioned above 54,700, suggesting a potential bullish breakout.

Supporting this setup, the RSI shows bullish divergence, while OBV (On-Balance Volume) also indicates accumulation, signaling buying interest. These factors combined point towards a likely relief rally in Bank Nifty in the coming sessions. Traders should watch for a decisive move above the neckline for confirmation of upside momentum.

Key Resistance: 54,700, 55,000

Key Support: 54,250, 54,000

Strategy: Buy Bank Nifty Futures in the 54,650–54,600 zone, with a stop-loss of 54,300, targeting 55,250.

Shitij Gandhi, Sr. Research Analyst (Technicals), SMC Global Securities

Bank Nifty began the week with marginal gains, with the technical structure tilting towards bears as of now. The index continues to drift lower, trading beneath its short-term averages, and is forming a lower-high, lower-low structure on the daily charts. The index has slipped back below its key psychological support of 55,000, which points toward fragile sentiment within the banking pack.

With private banks still under pressure, the near-term outlook stays weak. Bulls will need to reclaim the 55,300 zone to regain control; otherwise, the risk of a deeper correction remains high.

Key Resistance: 55,100, 55,300

Key Support: 54,200, 53,800

Strategy: Sell Bank Nifty on rallies near 54,800, with a stop-loss above 55,300, targeting 54,000.

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