Trading Plan: Can Nifty 50, Bank Nifty defend Friday's low amid expected consolidation?

Nifty Trading Plan for September 8

The Nifty 50 and Bank Nifty saw buying interest at lower levels and closed flat with a positive bias on Friday. The benchmark Nifty is expected to be in the 24,600–24,900 range in the immediate term, as below it, the 24,500–24,450 zone (the rising support trendline) is one to watch. However, above this range, the 25,000 level can be a possible hurdle. Meanwhile, the Bank Nifty may consolidate further, with immediate resistance at 54,450, followed by the 54,900–55,300 zone. However, 53,600 is the crucial support (coinciding with the 200-day EMA and rising support trendline), according to experts.

On September 5, the Nifty 50 rose 7 points to 24,741 after trading in the 24,622–24,832 range, while the Bank Nifty climbed 39 points to 54,115 after hitting an intraday high of 54,300 and a low of 53,720. The market breadth was slightly in favour of bulls. A total of 1,411 shares saw buying interest compared to 1,365 shares that were under pressure on the NSE.

Nifty Outlook and Strategy

Rajesh Bhosale, Technical Analyst at Angel One

While the Nifty gained for the week ended September 5, uncertainty continues to loom. The index failed to deliver a strong follow-through to positive domestic cues, such as upbeat GDP numbers or the GST 2.0 announcement. On the charts, prices appear to have formed a higher bottom, with the recent low of 24,400 being above the prior bottom of 24,340. Yet, the index remains within a lower-top structure, trading in the middle of last week’s correction zone.

Although the Nifty managed a close just above the 20 DEMA, it continues to struggle around the 50 DEMA. Candle patterns also suggest consolidation: a bullish Marubozu was formed near 24,430, while an intra-week bearish Marubozu appeared around 25,000. This creates a well-defined range of 24,400–25,000, and the next directional move will likely emerge only on a breakout from this band.

For immediate levels, 24,600 followed by 24,500 (matching lows) act as near-term supports, while 24,800–24,900, coinciding with the 50 DEMA, serve as immediate resistance. A decisive move beyond either side of this range would confirm the next phase of momentum.

Key Resistance: 24,800, 24,900

Key Support: 24,570, 24,500

Strategy: Buy Nifty Futures on dips around 24,750, with a stop-loss of 24,600, targeting 25,000–25,100.

Rajesh Palviya, Senior Vice President Research (Head Technical Derivatives) at Axis Securities

The Nifty closed last week 314 points higher and formed a bullish candle with an upper shadow on the weekly chart, indicating resistance around the 25,000 level.

For the past six weeks, the Nifty has been consolidating within the range of 25,000 to 24,350. A breakout in either direction is likely to determine the next trend. The 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 24,699 will serve as a key pivot level.

A sustained move above 25,000 could trigger buying momentum, pushing the index towards the 25,200 to 25,500 range. Conversely, a drop below 24,650 may lead to selling pressure, potentially bringing it down to the 24,500 to 24,300 range.

Looking ahead to the current week, we anticipate that the Nifty will trade within the broader range of 25,500 to 24,300, with a mixed bias. Additionally, the weekly Relative Strength Index (RSI) is on the verge of crossing above its reference line, signaling a potential positive shift in trend.

Key Resistance: 24,850, 25,000

Key Support: 24,600, 24,450

Strategy: Buy Nifty Futures around 24,600 with a stop-loss of 24,500, targeting 24,850–24,950.

Bank Nifty - Outlook and Positioning

Rajesh Bhosale, Technical Analyst at Angel One

No major changes were observed in the structure of the heavyweight banking index, as prices continued to remain confined within a narrow range. That said, the ability of buyers to defend key support levels, coupled with a near retest of the recent lows in the last session, suggests that they are not yet willing to relinquish complete control to sellers. This resilience raises the possibility of a short-term bounce, so long as the recent support zone of 53,500–53,400 holds firm. However, caution remains warranted.

The broader trend continues to tilt downward, and it would be prudent to avoid adopting an overtly aggressive stance. The expectation of a bounce stems largely from oversold technical indicators and the presence of crucial support levels near recent lows, rather than any decisive shift in trend.

In terms of levels, the 53,750–53,600 band is a crucial support zone, whereas on the flip side, the 54,450–54,500 zone is immediate resistance, followed by a stronger resistance in the 55,000–55,300 zone, aligning with the 50 & 89 DEMA.

Key Resistance: 54,300, 54,500

Key Support: 53,600, 53,400

Strategy: Buy Bank Nifty Futures on dips around 54,200, with a stop-loss of 53,850, targeting 54,800 / 55,000.

Rajesh Palviya, Senior Vice President Research (Head Technical Derivatives) at Axis Securities

Bank Nifty closed with a weekly gain of 459 points and formed a bullish candle on the weekly chart; however, it remained confined within the high–low range of the previous week, highlighting indecisiveness.

The index is approaching the crucial support zone at 53,500. A break below this level could lead to further declines, while maintaining position above it may trigger a relief rally. The chart pattern suggests that a sustained move above 54,500 could push the index higher toward the 55,000 to 55,500 range. Conversely, a decline below 53,500 might intensify selling pressure, bringing it down to the 52,900 to 52,500 range.

Looking ahead to the upcoming week, we expect Bank Nifty to trade within the range of 56,000 to 52,900, with a negative bias. The weekly Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains in the negative zone and below its reference line, reinforcing the bearish sentiment.

Key Resistance: 54,300, 54,600

Key Support: 53,850, 53,650

Strategy: Sell Bank Nifty around 54,300 with a stop-loss of 54,450, targeting 54,000–53,850.

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by experts on Moneycontrol are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.