Trading Plan: Can Nifty 50, Bank Nifty continue their upward momentum?

Nifty Outlook

The Nifty 50 bounced back with nearly a 1 percent gain, and the Bank Nifty snapped a four-day weakness, forming bullish candles on the daily charts with a higher high–higher low formation on June 16. Both indices climbed above the 20-day EMA and the midline of Bollinger bands. Hence, if the index defends 24,700, the immediate support, a rally toward 25,000–25,200 can’t be ruled out. However, if it falls below 24,700, the decline may extend to the 24,500 zone. Overall, it is expected to trade within the broad range of 24,500–25,200 in the short term, according to experts. Meanwhile, the Bank Nifty is likely to face resistance near 56,500, followed by 57,000, while support is placed at the 55,400 zone.

On June 16, the Nifty 50 rallied 228 points to 24,947, while the Bank Nifty closed at 55,945, rising 418 points (0.75 percent). The market breadth was slightly in favour of the bulls, with 1,366 shares seeing buying interest compared to 1,232 declining shares on the NSE.

Nifty Outlook and Strategy

Jay Thakkar, Vice President & Head of Derivatives and Quant Research at ICICI Securities

The Nifty has recovered well after a sharp sell-off due to geopolitical tensions. It bounced back from its previous swing support at the 24,500 level. As long as this level holds, the probability of the index heading back toward the upper end of the range (25,200) remains high. There was aggressive Call unwinding at the 25,000 strike and below those levels, as well as substantial Put writing from 24,500 to 24,900, indicating significant support in this range. There is no major hurdle before the 25,200–25,300 zone. Therefore, the short-term outlook is sideways to positive unless the 24,500 level is broken.

Key Resistance: 25,200, 25,300

Key Support: 24,800, 24,500

Strategy: Buy Nifty Futures at 25,000 and add on dips near 24,800, with a stop-loss of 24,450, targeting 25,300 and 25,500.

Jigar S Patel, Senior Manager - Equity Research at Anand Rathi

The Nifty took support near Friday’s closing level of approximately 24,700. On the daily chart, the RSI has rebounded from the key 50 level, signaling renewed bullish momentum. From a sentiment perspective, the FII Long-Short Ratio stood at a historically low 19% as of June 13, an extreme reading that often precedes sharp short-covering rallies. The alignment of strong technical support, positive momentum, and contrarian sentiment suggests the Nifty may be setting up for a short-term upside move in the sessions ahead.

Key Resistance: 25,100, 25,200

Key Support: 24,800, 24,700

Strategy: Buy Nifty Futures in the 24,850–24,950 zone, with a stop-loss of 24,700, targeting 25,300.

Vidnyan S Sawant, Head of Research at GEPL Capital

After a sharp rebound from the 22,900 level, the Nifty has entered a phase of consolidation, fluctuating within a range of approximately 800 points over the past four weeks. This consolidation is taking shape in the form of a horizontal channel pattern on the daily charts, reflecting a healthy pause after a strong recovery. The lower boundary of this channel, around the 24,450 level, has emerged as a strong demand zone, consistently attracting buying interest.

On the upside, the supply zone is evident near the 25,250 mark, which is acting as a cap on further gains for the time being. From a technical standpoint, key indicators continue to support the bullish undertone. The RSI remains above the 55 level and is gradually rising across all timeframes, indicating sustained positive momentum. Meanwhile, the MACD remains comfortably in bullish territory, with increasing histogram bars signaling a potential acceleration in upward momentum.

Additionally, the index is trading firmly above its 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which serves as dynamic support, reaffirming the strength of the prevailing uptrend. Collectively, these signals suggest that despite the ongoing consolidation, the broader structure of the market remains constructive, with a likely continuation of the bullish trend once the index breaks out of the current range.

Key Resistance: 25,250, 25,800

Key Support: 24,700, 24,450

Strategy: Buy Nifty Futures on dips near 24,700, with a stop-loss of 24,450, targeting 25,250 and 25,550.

Bank Nifty - Outlook and Positioning

Jay Thakkar, Vice President & Head of Derivatives and Quant Research at ICICI Securities

The Bank Nifty has reversed quite well after falling sharply and has taken good support at its previous swing lows around 55,000. It is now likely to head towards 57,000. The short-term range for the index is 55,000–57,000. There has been significant addition in Puts from the 55,500 to 56,000 levels, as well as Call unwinding at the lower levels, indicating that the bulls have made a comeback. The index is now likely to inch towards the upper end of the range. Therefore, the short-term outlook is sideways to positive.

Key Resistance: 56,500, 57,000

Key Support: 55,500, 55,000

Strategy: Buy Bank Nifty Futures at CMP and add on dips near 55,500, with a stop-loss of 54,900, targeting 57,000 and 57,500.

Jigar S Patel, Senior Manager - Equity Research at Anand Rathi

A key technical observation on the daily chart is the formation of an Inside Value relationship between the May and June Camarilla pivots (R3 & S3), with June’s range falling within May’s. This structure often precedes sharp directional moves. Supporting the bullish outlook, the daily RSI remains steady above the 50 mark, indicating sustained momentum. The confluence of price support, breakout strength, and favourable momentum suggests that Bank Nifty may witness further upside in the short term.

Key Resistance: 56,200, 56,400

Key Support: 55,500, 55,300

Strategy: Buy Bank Nifty Futures in the 56,000–56,050 zone, with a stop-loss of 55,600, targeting 57,000.

Vidnyan S Sawant, Head of Research at GEPL Capital

On the daily charts, the Bank Nifty has consistently held above its 20-day Exponential Moving Average (DEMA) while maintaining a higher high–higher low formation, a classic hallmark of a strong and sustained bullish trend. This positive structure is further supported by the fact that the Bank Nifty remains well above its 20-day, 50-day, and 100-day EMAs, highlighting the robustness of the prevailing upward momentum across short-, medium-, and long-term timeframes.

Adding to the bullish bias, the MACD indicator is gradually inching higher, signaling a steady buildup in buying momentum. Collectively, these technical signals reinforce the view that the Bank Nifty remains firmly positioned within a strong uptrend, with any dips likely to attract renewed buying interest unless there is a decisive breakdown below key support levels.

Key Resistance: 57,700, 58,500

Key Support: 55,500, 54,500

Strategy: Buy Bank Nifty Futures with a stop-loss of 55,500, targeting 57,700 and 58,500.

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