Technical View: Bearish Belt Hold pattern signals weakness; Nifty may fall toward 24,700 as key averages break

Nifty outlook for July 28

Bears dominated Dalal Street for the second consecutive session on July 25, pulling the benchmark Nifty 50 down by nearly a percent. The index decisively broke below the 50-day exponential moving average (EMA) for the first time since April 2025, and also dipped slightly below the lower band of the Bollinger Bands. This, coupled with bearish momentum indicators, signaled a shift toward negative sentiment. Rising volatility further added to traders' caution.

In the coming sessions, if the Nifty remains below the 50-day EMA (24,950), the correction could extend towards 24,700, followed by 24,473 (the June low), which is seen as a crucial support zone. However, in case of a rebound, experts suggest watching the 24,950–25,000 zone, followed by 25,150 (the 20-day EMA).

On July 25, the Nifty 50 opened lower at 25,010 (which turned out to be the day’s high) and gradually extended its downtrend as the day progressed. It hit an intraday low of 24,806 in late trade before closing at 24,837, down 225 points or 0.90 percent. The index formed a Bearish Belt Hold candlestick pattern on the daily chart, indicating subdued sentiment ahead.

Over the week, the Nifty declined by 0.53 percent, marking its fourth consecutive weekly loss. It formed a bearish candle with a long upper shadow on the weekly chart, reflecting selling pressure at higher levels.

According to Rupak De, Senior Technical Analyst at LKP Securities, the current technical setup appears notably weak and points to the possibility of a deeper correction.

“If the Nifty fails to reclaim levels above 24,900 in the next session or two, bulls could face significant short-term challenges. On the downside, immediate support is seen at 24,700, followed by 24,500. On the upside, resistance is now placed around 25,000,” he said.

Monthly options data suggests that the Nifty is expected to trade in a broad range of 24,500–25,500, with the near-term range likely between 24,600–25,200.

On the Put side, the maximum open interest (OI) was seen at the 25,000 strike, followed by the 24,500, 24,700, and 24,800 strikes. Maximum Put writing was noted at the 24,700 strike, followed by 24,600 and 24,850.

On the Call side, the 25,000 strike held the maximum open interest, followed by the 25,200 and 25,500 strikes. The most active Call writing was seen at the 25,000 strike, followed by 24,900 and 25,200.

Bank Nifty

The Bank Nifty formed a long red candle on the daily chart, nearly touching the lower Bollinger Band after decisively breaking below its short-term moving averages. The index declined by 537 points (0.94 percent) to close at 56,529.

However, on a weekly basis, the index snapped a three-week losing streak, gaining 0.44 percent. It formed a Doji-like candlestick on the weekly chart, indicating indecision, and also negated the lower highs–lower lows formation seen over the previous two weeks.

According to Chandan Taparia, Head – Technical Research and Derivatives at Motilal Oswal Financial Services:

“As long as the Bank Nifty remains below 56,750, weakness could continue towards 56,250, then 56,000 levels. On the upside, resistance is seen at 56,750, followed by 57,000.”

Meanwhile, India VIX, the market's fear gauge, rose for another session, climbing 5.15 percent on Friday to 11.28, its highest closing level since last Friday. This indicates a rise in caution among market participants.

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