The benchmark Sensex and Nifty indices are likely to open marginally higher on January 15 as trends in the GIFT Nifty indicate a positive start for the broader index with a gain of 69 points.
On January 12, the benchmark indices ended at a new record closing high with the BSE Sensex rising 847 points to 72,568, while the Nifty 50 surged 247 points or 1.14 percent to 21,895 and formed a bullish candlestick pattern on the daily timeframe. In fact, the index has also seen a strong breakout of downward-sloping resistance trendline hurdle of 21,750 with a gap-up opening on the same day.
The positive chart pattern like higher tops and bottoms is intact and the recent swing low of January 10 at 21,448 could be considered as a new higher bottom of the sequence, Nagaraj Shetti, senior technical research analyst, HDFC Securities said.
Even on the weekly chart, the Nifty 50 has formed a reasonable bull candle with a long lower shadow, nullifying the bearish doji pattern implication of the previous week, as Nifty closed above the high of last week (at 21,834 levels). Hence, the next upside level to be watched is around 22,200, while the immediate support is at 21,750, Nagaraj said.
The pivot point calculator indicates that the Nifty is likely to see immediate resistance at 21,914 followed by 21,978 and 22,059 levels, while on the lower side, it can take support at 21,765 followed by 21,714 and 21,633 levels.
Stay tuned to Moneycontrol to find out what happens in the currency and equity markets today. We have collated a list of important headlines across news platforms, which could impact Indian as well as international markets.
GIFT Nifty
The GIFT Nifty indicates a marginally positive start for the broader index with a gain of 69 points. GIFT Nifty futures stood at 22,024 points after making a high of 22,046 .5 points.
Trade setup for Monday: Top 15 things to know before the opening bell
US Markets
The Dow Jones industrial Average slipped Friday as traders parsed through the first batch of fourth-quarter earnings and digested the second in a pair of closely watched inflation reports this week.
The 30-stock Dow lost 118.04 points, or 0.31%, to close at 37,592.98. The S&P 500 ended the day 0.08% higher at 4,783.83, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite closed just above flat, gaining 0.02% to settle at 14,972.76.
UnitedHealth dragged the Dow lower, with the stock losing nearly 3.4% despite the company announcing higher-than-expected earnings and revenue for the fourth quarter. Delta Air Lines also fell nearly 9% even after exceeding quarterly earnings expectations.
A slew of big banks also reported earnings Friday. Bank of America lost about 1.1% after posting declining fourth-quarter profit, while Wells Fargo shares shed 3.3% despite posting a higher profit for the quarterly period. Shares of JPMorgan Chase lost 0.7% even after the bank said its earnings slipped by 15% from a year earlier.
Citigroup, meanwhile, added just above 1% after announcing the company is cutting 10% of its workforce. Earlier Friday, the bank posted a $1.8 billion quarterly loss after incurring several large charges.
European Markets
European markets closed higher Friday, rounding off a largely negative week, as investors digested fresh U.K. economic data and a fall in U.S. wholesale inflation.
The Stoxx 600 index provisionally closed 0.77% higher, with most sectors trading in positive territory. Retail stocks climbed 1.46% despite luxury British brand Burberry trading down 7% after the company issued a profit warning in response to slowing demand, sending other luxury lines lower in morning trade.
U.S. wholesale prices, measured in the producer price index, recorded an unexpected monthly decline of 0.1% in December. Prices were up 1% annually.
The U.S. consumer inflation report released Thursday had showed an increase in consumer prices of 0.3% on the month and 3.4% year on year, higher than forecast.
Meantime, fresh data Friday showed that the U.K. economy returned to growth in November, with gross domestic product beating expectations and expanding by 0.3%.
Asian Markets
Asia-Pacific markets largely fell after Taiwanese voters handed the Democratic Progressive Party another presidential victory, delivering the ruling party an unprecedented third-straight presidential term.
The DPP’s Lai Ching-te, the incumbent vice-president, emerged as the winner of the self-governing island’s presidential contest with more than 40% of the popular vote.
Investors will be closely watching China’s fourth quarter gross domestic numbers due out on Wednesday, while Japan will also release inflation figures for December on Friday.
In Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 kickstarted the week 0.15% lower. Japan’s Nikkei 225 continued its record-breaking run, with the index up marginally, while the Topix also touched new highs, gaining 0.35%
South Korea’s Kospi was also trading just above the flatline, but the small-cap Kosdaq fell 0.12%. Futures for Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index stood at 16,306, pointing to a stronger open compared with the HSI’s close of 16,244.58
Davos 2024: Elaborate discussion on key agendas lined up for 54th WEF meet
The 54th annual meeting of the World Economic Forum (WEF) is scheduled to occur from January 15 to 19, 2024 at the local Swiss Alpine School in the center of Davos.
The conference, centered around the theme of 'Rebuilding Trust,' will emphasize core trust-building principles such as transparency, consistency, and accountability. It aims to bring together over 100 governments, major international organizations, more than 1000 global companies, civil society, academia, and global media.
Davos 2024 will focus on a "back to basics" approach, fostering open and constructive dialogue among government, business, and civil society leaders. The objective is to navigate the complexities of the current environment, offering insight through the latest advancements in science, industry, and society.
Google fires hundreds more across engineering, other divisions | How is AI taking up jobs in 2024?
Google laid off employees working on its voice-activated assistant. According to Google, the restructuring would help improve Google Assistant as it explores integrating newer artificial intelligence technology into its products. Watch to know more.
Mcap of five of top-10 most-valued firms jumps Rs 1.99 lakh cr; Reliance shines
Five of the top-10 most-valued firms added Rs 1,99,111.06 crore in market valuation last week, with Reliance Industries emerging as the biggest gainer, in-tandem with bullish sentiments.
Last week, the BSE benchmark jumped 542.3 points or 0.75 per cent. Benchmark equity indices Sensex and Nifty surged over 1 per cent to hit their fresh all-time highs on Friday.
While Reliance Industries, Tata Consultancy Services (TCS), ICICI Bank, Infosys and Bharti Airtel were the gainers from the top-10 pack, HDFC Bank, Hindustan Unilever, ITC, State Bank of India and Life Insurance Corporation of India (LIC) were the laggards, taking a combined hit of Rs 76,098.67 crore. Reliance Industries added Rs 90,220.4 crore taking its market valuation to Rs 18,53,865.17 crore.
The valuation of TCS jumped Rs 52,672.04 crore to Rs 14,20,333.97 crore. Shares of Tata Consultancy Services climbed nearly 4 per cent on Friday after the company reported an 8.2 per cent growth in net income for the December quarter at Rs 11,735 crore.
Charting the Global Economy: Fed to lead pivot toward interest-rate cuts
The coming 12 months are shaping up as the year of the interest-rate cut, with the Federal Reserve poised to lead the charge for richer countries.
Traders boosted bets on how aggressively the Fed will lower borrowing costs this year after a report showed prices paid to producers continued to fall in December. Even so, the path to taming inflation will be bumpy, as a measure of consumer prices rose by the most in three months.
Similar metrics in Norway and Chile eased in December, while Argentina ended the year with inflation above 200%. While inflation is mostly retreating around the world, soaring shipping costs and a jump in oil prices are stoking worries about a revival of cost pressures.
Avenue Supermarts Q3: D-Mart operator's net profit rises 17% to Rs 690 crore, revenue up 17.3%
Avenue Supermarts, which operates the retail chain D-Mart, on January 13 reported a consolidated net profit of Rs 690.41 crore in the third quarter of fiscal year 2023-24, up 17.09 percent from Rs 589.64 crore in the year-ago period.
The company's standalone net profit rose 14.9 percent from Rs 641.07 crore in the previous year. Avenue Supermarts reported a 17.31 percent year-on-year (YoY) rise in consolidated revenue from operations at Rs 13,572.47 crore, as against Rs 11,569.05 crore in the December 2022 quarter. The standalone revenue rose 17.1 percent from Rs 11,304.58 crore in the previous year.
Earnings before Interest, Tax, Depreciation and Amortization (EBITDA) in Q3FY24 stood at Rs 1,120 crore, as compared to Rs 965 crore in the corresponding quarter of last year. EBITDA margin stood at 8.3 percent in Q3FY24 as compared to 8.3 percent in Q3FY23.
ONGC makes back-to-back gas discoveries in Mahanadi basin block
State-owned Oil and Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC) has made two significant back-to-back natural gas discoveries in a Mahanadi basin deepwater block in the Bay of Bengal as its calculated game plan of venturing into high-risk deep-water exploration starts yielding results.
The firm made the discoveries in the block MN-DWHP-2018/1, which it had won in the third round of auction under the open acreage licensing policy in 2019, two sources with direct knowledge of the development said. Significantly, the discoveries have been made in an area, which previously was classified as a ’no-go’ area because of national security interests.
The first discovery, named Uktal, is in 714 metres of water depth and flowed more than 3 lakh cubic metres per day of gas during initial testing, they said, adding the other find is at a water depth of 1,110 metres.ONGC has notified the discoveries to upstream regulator Directorate General of Hydrocarbons (DGH) and is now doing pool size and commercial viability assessments, they said.
Nifty may be in last leg of rally | These 3 stocks likely to give 10-25% profit in short term
One week into the year 2024, the Indian markets had reached yet another record high. The domestic market ended the week (on January 12) at the historic top as there were no negative factors. Initially, we witnessed a tug of war between bulls and bears for several sessions, but eventually, the bulls were able to confirm a new breakout in the benchmark Nifty index. The index hit a lifetime high of 21,928, ending the week up 0.85 percent.
In the previous weekly edition, we said that the index could still rise towards 22,000 and this was resistance formed by the placement of the uptrend line. Thus, Nifty managed to break above the support of 21,500 and tested almost 22,000 in futures. Going forward, the rally above 22,000 could move towards 22,200-22,400 next week.
However, the long-short ratio of FII index futures was around 70 percent in the previous week, but now it is around 66 percent. Over the past 2-3 years, the market briefly peaked when this ratio reached the 70-75 percent range. This suggests that Nifty still has some upside potential, but this could be the final stage of the rally, after which we could see strong profit-taking in the market.
Traders are advised to continue to be cautious with long positions. For individual stock opportunities, especially smallcap companies, you should maintain a strict downside stoploss. On the flip-side, the market needs to break 21,500 to confirm the temporary top.
Nifty IT shining: Pick these 2 tech stocks for healthy returns
On the daily charts, Nifty has broken above the trading range of the past eight sessions, where it was consolidating between 21,440–21,800. The IT sector helped Nifty reach record highs as heavyweights TCS and Infosys gained sharply on Friday, January 12, 2024. Reliance Industries also supported the rally as it has been trading near record highs for the past three trading sessions. Further, we can see healthy sector rotation, where different sectors are contributing to the upmove.
Going by the Elliott wave, prices are currently in wave iii of (v). Hence, it is best to use dips as buying opportunities, unless there is any close below the support level of 21,580 (what to do then, not buy?). A close above the immediate psychological hurdle of 22,000 will further extend the short-term upmove.
In short, the Nifty has just broken out from the flag pattern, and may further accelerate towards 22,118 levels. As long as it is above 21,580, buying on dips can be a prudent strategy.
82 smallcaps gain between 10-39% as record rally continues
After opening the week on a negative note and remaining in consolidation for next three sessions, market bounced back sharply on last day of the week as investors cheered the earnings from the IT giants Infosys and TCS.
For the week, BSE Sensex added 0.75 percent or 542.3 points to end at 72,568.45, while Nifty50 gained 183.7 points or 0.84 percent to close at 21,894.50. On January 12, the Sensex and Nifty touched fresh record highs of 72,720.96 and 21,928.25, respectively.
Broader indices, BSE-Largecap, BSE-Midcap, and BSE-Smallcap, touched fresh record highs in this week with a gain of 0.7 percent, 0.45 percent and 1.5 percent, respectively.
Sebi mulls framework for voluntary blocking of trading accounts by clients
Capital markets regulator Sebi on Friday said a framework will be put in place by April 1, allowing trading members to offer the facility of voluntarily blocking online access of trading accounts for clients displaying suspicious activities.
The framework will be laid down by Brokers’ Industry Standards Forum (ISF) in collaboration with stock exchanges and Sebi, the regulator said in a circular. The framework will include guidelines on the detailed policy for voluntarily freezing or blocking a client’s online trading account.
It will prescribe communication methods for clients to request such blocking, the issuance of acknowledgment upon message receipt, and the timeframe for processing the request and blocking the trading account. Further, Sebi said that action will be taken by the trading member following the receipt of a request for freezing/blocking of the trading account and the process for re-enabling the client for trading.
Domestic retail investors raise stake in Paytm to 12.85%
Domestic retail investors have increased their stake in Paytm to 12.85 percent sequentially in the third quarter ending December 2023, as against 8.28 percent a quarter ago. The portion of domestic institutions also went up to 6.06 percent from 4.06 percent, on the back of increased investment from mutual funds.
According to the latest shareholding pattern for Q3FY24, domestic mutual funds Mirae Mutual Fund and Nippon India Mutual Fund, upped their stake in the fintech giant by 2.20 percent for the quarter, and now hold 4.99 percent at 3,16,64,315 shares.
The rest continues to be vested with other domestic institutions, including Alternate Investment Funds (0.63), Insurance companies (0.40), and Provident Funds/ Pension Funds (0.05).
IPO Weekly Wrap: Jyoti CNC’s issue booked over 38 times; 5 SMEs remain in focus
This week, Jyoti CNC Automation's initial public offering (IPO) closed on January 11 with a decent oversubscription of around 38 times. In the small and medium-sized enterprises (SME) space, Kaushalaya Logistics, IBL Finance, New Swan Multitech, Australian Premium Solar, and Shree Matutinandan Tubes captured investor interest.
Oil Prices
Oil prices rose after Britain and the United States carried out military strikes against targets in Houthi-controlled areas of Yemen, as tensions in the Red Sea mount further.
West Texas Intermediate and Brent futures spiked more than 4% Friday morning to hit their highest levels since Dec. 27. U.S. crude oil jumped to $75.25 a barrel while the global benchmark touched $80.75. The benchmarks pulled back later in the session with U.S. crude settling at $72.68 a barrel and Brent settling at $78.29 a barrel.
“These targeted strikes are a clear message that the United States and our partners will not tolerate attacks on our personnel or allow hostile actors to imperil freedom of navigation in one of the world’s most critical commercial routes,” U.S. President Joe Biden said in a statement Thursday evening.
While the U.S. has carried out strikes on Iranian proxies in Syria and Iraq since the outbreak of the Gaza war, this would be the first known strike against the Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen.
Dollar Index
The Dollar index traded 0.06 percent lower in futures at 102.44, whereas the value of one dollar hovered near Rs 83.09.
Gold Prices
Gold prices scaled a one-week peak on Friday as an escalation in the Middle East conflict fuelled safe-haven buying, while softer U.S. producer price inflation boosted bets that the Federal Reserve might cut interest rates sooner.
Spot gold was up 1% at $2,048.21 per ounce at 2:24 p.m. ET (1924 GMT), after climbing as much as 1.7% earlier in the session. Bullion was mostly flat on the week, but extended its run above the $2,000 level to nearly a month. U.S. gold futures settled 1.6% higher at $2,051.60.
U.S. and Britain launched air strikes across Yemen in retaliation against Houthi forces for attacks on Red Sea shipping that the Iran-backed fighters cast as a response to the war in Gaza. Iran condemned the attacks, warning that it will fuel “insecurity and instability” in the region.
A rise in geopolitical risk is pushing gold prices up, and at the same time, the U.S. central bank may be getting ready to start moderating its restrictive monetary policy, said Bart Melek, head of commodity strategies at TD Securities. The U.S. producer price index (PPI) data came in negative, which was also a significant catalyst for prices, Melek added.
FIIs and DIIs
Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) offloaded shares worth Rs 340.05 crore, while domestic institutional investors (DIIs) bought Rs 2,911.19 crore worth of stocks on January 12, provisional data from the NSE showed.
With inputs from Reuters and other agencies.
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