Closing Bell: Nifty ends around 17,450, Sensex rises 449 pts; all sectors in the green

Taking Stock | After 8 days, market goes green; Sensex up 449 points, Nifty above 17,400

All sectoral indices ended in the green, with the Nifty Metal index adding 4 percent and the PSU Bank index 3 percent... Read More

The Bank Nifty remained positive throughout the day following a consolidation breakout on the daily chart. During the day, it moved closer to the 14 DMA.

The momentum oscillator RSI is in bullish crossover. A double bottom formation on the daily RSI is likely to provide positive momentum in the space. On the higher end, it may move towards 41,000. On the lower end, support is placed at 40,400.

Markets started the March month on a positive note and gained nearly a percent, taking a breather after the recent fall. After the initial uptick, the Nifty index traded in a narrow range for most of the session but buying in select heavyweights kept the tone positive.

On the sectoral front, recovery in the IT and metal pack combined with continued resilience in banking played a crucial role. Besides, recovery on the broader front further added to the buoyancy.

We expect the rebound to extend further but the existence of a hurdle around 17,600 in Nifty might cap the upside. We reiterate our view to focus on identifying trading opportunities based on sectoral trends while keeping a check on leveraged trades. In absence of any major domestic event, global cues would continue to induce volatility in between.

The Nifty opened on a positive note today and continued to inch higher throughout the day to close with gains of 147 points. We believe that Nifty is oversold and the pullback can continue over the next few trading sessions.

On the hourly charts Nifty has broken out of a falling channel which suggests that the Nifty is in a counter trend pullback. The positive crossover on the hourly momentum indicator is in sync with the price action.

The pullback if any is likely to be just a relief rally and thus we change our outlook on the Nifty to sideways.

The range of consolidation is likely to be 17,700 – 17,200. In terms of levels, 17,340 – 17,300 shall act as a crucial support zone while 17,550 – 17,600 is the immediate hurdle zone for Nifty.

The sequential dip in the GST collections in February 2023 is partly on account of the boost to the January figure from the quarter-ending inflows (for the month of December, which were remitted in the following month). Interestingly, there is a large divergence in the growth of the revenues from import of goods of 6% and that from domestic transactions of 15% in February 2023.

The GST revenues from imports of goods are likely to have been dampened by the sequential and YoY contraction in merchandise imports in January 2023.

We expect the FY2023 RE for CGST collections to be met. However, there could be some shortfall in direct taxes relative to the FY2023 RE.

In the month of January, the FII outflows were partially attributed to diversion of funds towards China which was going through its re-opening, and it appeared that the FII selling was coming to an end as the selling stabilized in February.

In February 2nd week did see some inflows, however, the recent hawkishness by the US Fed on back of strong non-farm payroll numbers along with sequential acceleration in CPI inflation has led to markets pricing in increased probability of peak rates of 6%.

With US rates expected to stay higher for longer given the resilient US economy, we expect a risk off environment globally which may lead to continued selling by FIIs, at least till next set of macro data prints from the US.

Markets witnessed a relief rally after 8 sessions of losses, as broad-based buying on the back of short covering and uptick in European and select Asian indices aided the sentiment.

The recovery was expected as the market had witnessed relentless selling over the past week or so due to weak global cues and slowdown concerns.

A promising reversal formation and strong bullish candle is indicating further uptrend in the near future.

For the traders, 17,350 would act as a sacrosanct support zone and above the same the positive momentum is likely to continue till 17,525-17,600. On the other side, below 17,350 uptrend would be vulnerable.

The Indian market was oversold and needed encouraging domestic triggers to show signs of revival. The manufacturing PMI reported was better than predicted at 55.3, even though India's Q3 FY23 GDP statistics came in slightly below expectations at 4.4%.

Solid global markets, bolstered by strong Chinese manufacturing data, also ignited optimism in the domestic market.

Indian rupee ended higher by 16 paise at 82.50 per dollar against previous close of 82.66.

Indian benchmark indices ended on positive note on March 1 with Nifty around 17,450.

At close, the Sensex was up 448.96 points or 0.76% at 59,411.08, and the Nifty was up 146.90 points or 0.85% at 17,450.90. About 2396 shares have advanced, 1009 shares declined, and 129 shares are unchanged.

Adani Enterprises, Hindalco Industries, UPL, SBI and Axis Bank were among the biggest gainers on the Nifty. On the other hand, Britannia Industries, Power Grid Corporation, Cipla, BPCL and SBI Life Insurance lost the most.

All the sectoral indices ended in the green with metal, bank,PSU Bank, oil & gas, information technology, capital goods, power and realty up 1-2 percent.

BSE midcap and smallcap indices rose 1 percent each.

Benchmark Indices finally tasted a tinge of Green in today's trade on the back of monthly automotive volume numbers and healthy GST collections in a shorter month. Even as the street reacted to the third quarter GDP numbers today, markets seem to look forward towards the 5 percent GDP during Q4.

Today's session however surely witnessed investor interest in several PSU banking stocks which had corrected quite meaningfully.

Total sales were up 33% at 953 units versus 714 units, YoY.

Gold prices traded up on Wednesday, with spot gold prices at Comex were trading higher by 0.35% at USD 1833 per ounce. Gold April future contract at MCX were trading higher by 0.13% at Rs 55831 per 10 grams by noon session.

Gold prices short term trend reversed after weaker than estimated U.S. consumer confidence data on Tuesday. US Consumer confidence unexpectedly index dropped to 102.9 in February from 106.0 in January. However, in February month gold prices fell by 5.28% and posted biggest monthly declined since June 2021 on back of stronger US Dollar and fear that the U.S. Federal Reserve would keep raising interest rates at aggressive pace.

Money markets expect the U.S. Federal Reserve's target rate to peak at 5.425% in September, following a string of strong economic data. We expect gold prices should trade with positive bias and prices relief rally will likely to extend $1845 per ounce on today’s session. Comex Spot Gold having resistances at $1845/$1860 per ounce and supports at $1819/$1805 per ounce. MCX Gold April future has resistance at Rs 56010 per 10 grams and supports place at Rs 55300 per 10 grams.