Markets are poised for a bullish July, if one goes by the seasonality factor for the upcoming month that has seen only one negative close since 2014, shows data.
Since 2009, Nifty has had a positive close in July on 75 percent of the occasions, making it the month with the best average chance of ending with gains in a year, if only looks at the data for last 16 years.
Market have been in a sustained upmove since April 2025, with the Nifty clocking its fourth positive series of expiry, underscoring a revival of sentiment. The Nifty 50 ended the June series higher by 2.9% while small and midcaps indices gained 5.1% and 3.1%, respectively.
Any further uptrend will only bring Nifty 50 closer to its all-time high of 26,277 level, which is now less than 700 points away, after the close on June 27. The session saw Nifty Bank hit an all-time high and closed above 57,400 for the first time ever. The benchmark Nifty has touched a nine-month high after gaining for a second straight week in June, taking the MTD gains to 3.58 percent.
"We expect the market to witness a steady uptrend, supported by improving institutional inflows, prospects of a US-India trade deal, and sectoral tailwinds from RBI’s liquidity measures and an above-average monsoon forecast," said Siddhartha Khemka, Head - Research, Wealth Management, Motilal Oswal Financial.
The levels around 25,000 are expected to act as a key support going forward. "The current rally is corroborated by positive market breadth, characterized by broad-based sectoral participation, which adds further credibility to the ongoing uptrend. The upper band of the recent consolidation range 25,100-25,200 is likely to reverse its role and act as key support in coming weeks," Bajaj Broking said in a note on June 27.
Nandish Shah, Senior Derivative & Technical Research Analyst, HDFC Securities said the charts point towards a setup that could take this leg of the rally up to 26,000. "The Nifty has now entered the downward gap area of 25,640-25,740, created back on October 3, 2024. Any decisive close above 25,740 could provide the impetus to push the index towards the next psychological and technical resistance of 26,000," said Nandish Shah.
Another chartist said a 'buy-on-dips' strategy appears more appropriate at current levels. "With no major resistance seen before 25,750–25,800, the index may continue its upward trajectory. However, the rally might not be sharp, and it could take time to reach the 25,800 mark," said Rupak De, Senior Technical Analyst at LKP Securities.
On a monthly basis, since 2014, the Nifty 50 index has ended in the red on only once in July, during 2019, making it the lone down month in last 11. Since 2014, Nifty has had only one down year, 2015, and managed to close in the green for all other years.
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