Market volatility expected even if Bihar exit polls hold; traders eye key Nifty levels, global cues

Nifty, Sensex Today

Indian share markets are set for a potentially turbulent Friday as traders prepare for intraday volatility around the Bihar election verdict, even if the results ultimately align with exit poll projections favouring the NDA.

Brokerages said that volatility has already risen in the run-up to the count. Bajaj Broking Research flagged a “high-wave candle” on the Nifty, pointing to consolidation with a positive bias amid elevated swings. Siddhartha Khemka of Motilal Oswal said Friday’s session “may see heightened volatility due to the Bihar election outcome.”

Amruta Shinde of Choice Equity Broking added that markets ended flat on Wednesday as investors remained cautious ahead of the results, with benchmarks trading in a tight range for much of the session. FundsIndia said the Nifty extended gains for a third straight day and closed above 25,800 on optimism from exit polls.

• Also read | Share markets brace for Bihar election verdict today; exit-poll comfort faces asymmetric risks

Global cues offer mixed influence. Vinod Nair of Geojit Investments said sentiment was supported by Trump signing a short-term US funding bill to end the government shutdown and optimism over tariff relief for India. Record-low October inflation has reinforced expectations of an RBI rate cut, making rate-sensitive sectors relatively attractive. However, persistent FII outflows and a weak rupee remain headwinds that could amplify any market swings triggered by the election outcome.

Traders expect a session marked by sharp intraday moves, with the Bihar verdict serving as the primary catalyst and technical levels dictating the extent of any breakout or pullback.

On Thursday, the Sensex closed almost unchanged at 84,478.67, while the Nifty ended flat at 25,879.15.

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